The goal of this blog is to identify medium term tops and bottoms in the markets. I use a variety of technical indicators to confirm turn dates identified on the 2013 Roadmaps. This blog will always remain free as the intent is that the market is the one who pays me, not you. TimetheTrade (aka TTT) is born. SS76

Thursday, 4 April 2013

S&P Roadmap #1 or #2?


Both S&P Roadmaps called a March 31st top well in advance along with what we are seeing, a minor pullback.  We had a higher high April 2nd, but the momentum definitely turned as confirmed by todays big drop.   So, where do we go from here?  Well, for starters, that question will become clear as time goes on, however I don't think this is the time to get greedy if you have shorts.  According to both roadmaps, we should only be down till early to mid April before rebounding, but this is where the roadmaps start to take a different direction.

The best way to play this, is take profit on your shorts.  I suspect before the week is done or early next week, we could see 1530.  At this point if we reached there, you should be out of all your shorts.

Roadmap #1 is looking at a higher high come May 14 - 16 timeframe.  Roadmap #2 by contrast would have  a significant low May 1 - 3.   I think the key is to see where the S&P is come May 1-3 timeframe to determine which roadmap is in play, but I am now thinking  based on the levels of the S&P today, that Roadmap #1 should be your guide and as such, the best strategy would be to wait until mid May to place big time shorts.

Both roadmaps can be accessed at the top via the the 2013 Roadmaps Tab.

Commodities are perilously close to breaking some critical support levels spanning a few years.  Particularly Silver which has a $26.11 support level that is critical, and I'm thinking we are looking at a bounce there which will coincide with the S&P early next week.   Notice all of a sudden Gold/Silver tracking the S&P again?

No fancy charts today, just the roadmaps.  

One more push higher into May 14-16? Why not.

40 comments:

  1. I suspect it could be a hybrid of both. Gyrations up and down, with the general trend downward until end of May. Guess we'll see, soon enough.

    Best of the Stock Market: https://sites.google.com/site/bestofthestockmarket/

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  2. I'll check it out. Certainly there is no certainty with these roadmap. Have to take what the market is willing to give.

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  3. Like Cyprus, the ADP dip is temporary, and as suggested 1530 is in play Friday or Monday. This dip should be bought.

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  4. If 1530 breaks today, tomorrow, or Monday, then the drop will continue to 1512, but I don't think that happens. Given 1541 was broken today, we could get the 1530 today.

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  5. 1541.30 is decent support, but this has already been breached.

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  6. LOoks like the low was 1538 rather than 1530 I had thought, and while we may get some more weakness, the general trend will be on to new highs for the May 14-16 timeframe as per roadmap #1.

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  7. S&P 500 (FX Tech Trade)

    Support: - 1541.30 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1512.23, where correction could be. Then follows 1503.12, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1490.83. Continuation will lead to 1485.29.

    Resistance: - 1566.24 and 1578.00(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1592.80, where correction may also be. Then 1618.60. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1643.00. Continuation will lead to 1665.03.

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  8. 1578 is main resistance. Stop placed at 1580 on my short scalp.

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  9. Will reshort at 1592 cause that is where she is headed today!

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    1. Haven't reshorted, stuck with my DGAZ purchase....and will ride that for the next couple weeks.

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  10. 1593, then pull back to 1578, new highs 1600 - 1610 may 14 - 16

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    1. Hows that for a call! 1592.80 close. Just under 1593, if we are lucky then early strength for the S&P tomorrow, but I think it retests the 1578 previous resistance level. Techtrade has the following which provided good guidance of the main resistance line today, and it sure panned out.

      S&P 500

      Support: - 1561.46, 1550.58, 1541.30 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1512.23, where correction could be. Then follows 1503.12, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1490.83. Continuation will lead to 1485.29.

      Resistance: - 1597.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1608.70, where correction may also be. Then 1618.60. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1643.00. Continuation will lead to 1665.03.

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  11. Silver here is a buy, but risky. I would buy around close, with a stop at todays low for Monday (not saying I will as I'm getting crushed on NAT GAS).

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    1. Glad I waited on Silver!!!! Thinking of an overnight hold.....bounce from oversold conditions.

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  12. Well, 1562 is first support. With 1578 going by, 1562 was not hard to see as its the first level of support. Either way we will have new highs in 1 month.

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    1. hmmmm, looking like 1550 for the close. Maybe we do get that 1530 afterall! What an opportunity if that happens.

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  13. S&P 500 (Thanks FXtechtrade)

    Support: - 1550.58(main). Break will give 1541.30, where correction could be. Then follows 1530.00, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1518.72. Continuation will lead to 1512.13 and 1507.50.

    Resistance: - 1586.28 and 1597.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1608.70, where correction may also be. Then 1618.60. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1643.00. Continuation will lead to 1665.03.

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  14. 1551 is support today. Breaks this and we could see a big sell off to 1530. Certainly feeling like it, but I don't think it happens.

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  15. support is hanging by a thread...momentum threatens to break it now.

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  16. SPX 50 DMA holding on by a thread, putting up a good fight though.

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    1. Closed below the 50 DMA...this is significant short term. 1530 most definitely gets tested.

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  17. Well, looks like the push to new highs for May 14 - 16 has started after the anticipated dip. Certainly choppy and difficult to trade. Here are todays support and resistance levels thanks to fxtechtrade:

    S&P500

    Support: - 1548.87 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1518.72, where correction could be. Then follows 1512.13, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1507.50. Continuation will lead to 1491.32 and 1472.70.

    Resistance: - 1575.00, 1586.28 and 1597.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1608.70, where correction may also be. Then 1618.60. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1643.00. Continuation will lead to 1665.03.

    Since I am short the gold miners as of the close yesterday, here are Gold levels as well:

    GOLD

    Support: - 1409.43, 1383.13 and 1362.36(main).Break of the latter would give 1335.85, where correction may happen. Then goes1318.87, where correction is also possible. If a strong impuls, we would see1302.00. Continuation would give 1288.10.

    Resistance: - 1440.03(main),where correction is possible. The break will lead to1455.80, where correction is also possible. Then follows1462.30. If a strong impulse we would have1484.53. Continuation would bring 1496.28.



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  18. Went short at 1575 for a scalp....just looking for the SPX to drop 4 points from here and will cover.

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    1. hmmm, stop at 1580. unfortunately with 1575 broken we may get 1586.

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    2. Well, didn't get stopped out, so there is hope for a profitable trade. If Apple disappoints, then watch out.

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  19. Todays trading levels. Still have my SPXU short but may switch it for DUST which has been kind to me lately.

    S&P 500 (thanks to fx tech trade)

    Support: - 1563.70, 1548.87 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1518.72, where correction could be. Then follows 1512.13, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1507.50. Continuation will lead to 1491.32 and 1472.70.

    Resistance: - 1586.28 and 1597.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1608.70, where correction may also be. Then 1618.60. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1643.00. Continuation will lead to 1665.03.


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  20. I suppose no one will believe it when the S&P falls from 1610, down to 1330 or so by the end of July. Its going to happen, so position yourself accordingly. I would not be long come May, even though I have May 14 - 16 for the high.

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    1. I wish the S&P would take a dump but the GDP numbers today had literally no effect on the market. This game is rigged by the
      85 Billion flowing into the market on a monthly basis.

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  21. Well, we are almost at the May 1 - 3 critical time frame, and unless the market tanks this week by the tune of 60 - 80 points, then we are not going to get the significant low Roadmap #2 was predicting, and Roadmap #1 continues to be the one to follow.

    That sets up an exciting Early May short, as we are going to see a 18% - 20% drop into late July, so this is worth trading.

    As I suggested, come May 1, even thought the roadmap decline starts mid may, I would be out of long positions.

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  23. Looks like roadmap #1 is looking good which falls in line with other projections I am looking at. Risk reward is on the downside here and if we get that 18%-20% that would be great. When are you looking at going short?

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  24. I agree. Currently I am short the morning miners as I believe GDX will drop 10% from here first, my sell target for DUST is 112. Then I will go short, prefer over 1600 but if I see the real drop happening then I'll act near support levels.

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  25. S&P500 Thanks to fx tech trade

    Support: - 1572.90, 1563.70, 1548.87 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1518.72, where correction could be. Then follows 1512.13, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1507.50. Continuation will lead to 1491.32 and 1472.70.

    Resistance: - 1597.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1608.70, where correction may also be. Then 1618.60. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1643.00. Continuation will lead to 1665.03.

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  26. Interesting that 1597.50 resistance is holding, but pressure is to the upside. I would still be waiting before piling on shorts, but this is probably a good place to take 1/3rd position.

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  27. I think the question in the title has been answered. Roadmap #1 it is, setting up the epic short in th next couple weeks.

    New thread coming this weekend!

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  28. Wow what a day SS76, to be honest I never expected the market to go this high. I started shorting a bit early in the peace but it doesn't worry me as long as we get this correction soon. Everyone is calling this a break out and for 1700 1800 2000 on S&P now. You made a great call on the market going higher into May excellent work. Do you see much more upside here before we turn down?
    Look forward to seeing your new thread over the weekend, can you please describe all the possible scenarios you see going forward in your new update. Thanks for the great work.

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  29. Very helpful, road maps always play an most important role for successful business.

    go to market road map

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  30. US crude inventories fell 2.3 million barrels in the week ending July 15.
    capitalstars

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