The goal of this blog is to identify medium term tops and bottoms in the markets. I use a variety of technical indicators to confirm turn dates identified on the 2013 Roadmaps. This blog will always remain free as the intent is that the market is the one who pays me, not you. TimetheTrade (aka TTT) is born. SS76

Sunday, 5 May 2013

Major TTT opportunity May 14 - 16


Thus far, the roadmaps have proved to be quite reliable as part of your trading strategy.  When everyone and their mother was calling for a top, the roadmap #1 continued to call for higher highs into early/mid may.   May 1-3rd as previously mentioned was a key point as if that was a low, then roadmap #2 would have been the likeliest scenario.

So, lets focus on whats ahead.

I had figured 1600 - 1610 was the high for May 14 - 16 timeframe however since we are past that, and the trend line suggests that if we do go as high as the upper channel top, we are looking at a high of 1650.  While that doesn't seem possible for me, I will just work with what the chart is telling me.  Its more important that time is correct rather than price.

So what I've illustrated below is the current scenario using a rising wedge from the 2011 Low, that we are sitting at the top of, and I'm also using an upper trend channel the S&P finds itself in (better for shorter trading timeframes).

I don't hold too much stock in the upper green line partly due to the fact the S&P had already broken through it previously and hence why we are moving to the upside still, but the lower red line is still important as we look forward.   If the S&P continues in this channel to the May 14 - 16 timeframe, then we are looking at a 1650 price.  However I just posted the main alternate roadmap which is showing May 7th as the next high, and if that ends up being the case, we are looking at 1640.

The drop according to the primary roadmap is going to be roughly 18%, so we are looking at a 50% fib retracement of the bull move off the Oct 2011 low.  You will notice how this would significantly violate the red trendline and this is would mean that the next peak will be a lower high, as per Roadmap #1 around late Oct early Nov.


May 21st is an important date to know if roadmap #1 continues as primary, or if we should be looking at the main alternate roadmap  which takes a different direction into early July before heading down into early August.  

The Primary Roadmap calls for a lower high in early November, the Main Alternate Roadmap calls for significant new alltime highs at the end of November.    Whats great, is that the July 29 - Aug 2nd low is a major one, before a big move back up into at least early November for both scenarios.

Remember, always use stops, and don't just rely on the roadmap, look at technicals around turn dates to confirm direction.  Either way, I will be all in short come May 14 - 16, but will start building my short position May 7th.

127 comments:

  1. great post. I am new to your analysis and I am not sure how your different roadmaps fit with each others. The 18% drop yoiu are highlighting seems contradicted by the primary roadmap under Roadmaps 2013, but I might be reading your chart wrong. Also, what is the underlying for your scenarii? is it cycle analysis? I use this and get to a May 9 top. Strikingly in-line with what you seem to expect, but my top comes at 1605 and we are past it. Would be very interested in your clarifications. rgds

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The maps don't correlate together. They are independant and as such can go in opposite directions. When they are travelling in the same direction, I look at hte turn dates and determine which the S&P is likely following. If you look at the update March 17th primary roadmap (hyperlinked above), you will see the drop from May 14 - 16 into the end of July is steep, 18% looks about right. The Alternate roadmap though also calls for a decline into the end of July, however certainly a different path and different severity.

      Delete
  2. Hi. I'm using correlation charts from past years to find commonality, along with using some TA. The roadmap is more about time than price, I get price closer to dates and use the preceding action as a bit of a guide, with Andrews pitchfork, Fib time/price, etc. We'll see how this works out

    ReplyDelete
  3. Makes sense. Will be in touch. Best of luck.

    ReplyDelete
  4. ECB rate cut again? Seems like the perfect catalyst to 1650.

    Today would be an ideal day to take another 1/3 short position.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I just took a 50% position in SPXU. Will save the other 50% for end of this week, early next week.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi SS76, notice how everyone has turned bullish, even the perma bears are bulls.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh yeah, that is a good sign. When the market seems like nothing can take it down, is usually when it happens. 1650 is possible between now and the 16th, but I ain't taking that chance and will remain short.

      Delete
  7. Hi SS76 are you still looking at a high in the next few days and then we drop into July?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Here we are, May 14 - 16. This should be the high for now at least and the place to get short (average short on the RUT at around 970 for me). We should see a substantial drop now. Roadmap #1 suggests 18% - 20% down until July 29 time frame, however the new alternate roadmap suggests that we could only be down into May 21st, and then on to newer highs. So I would say its important to watch the action and play tight stops on your shorts, don't bet the farm that it heads down as suggested, just a guide.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I hope this market goes into freefall but it is too rigged - too much
    sugar from Benny the sugar fairy.

    Today's action speaks volume that no one is afraid of this market falling back.

    I hope I am wrong

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Listen, when everyone thinks the market cannot go down, is precisely when it does. Lets see how this plays out.

      Delete
  10. 1650, there it is. May go a touch higher, but this should be it.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Like i said - I hope the market sinks but after today's action I'll only
    believe when I see it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't blame you. Mind you, not many saw new highs in May when my models suggested indeed that would be the case.

      So, now I'm suggesting this to be a top area, lets see if that plays out. Like you, I hope it sinks also for selfish reasons, lol.

      Delete
    2. Strange the VIX wasn't down big on a day like today. Another possible warning sign

      Delete
  12. Boy this feels bubbly doesn't it? Vix not buying it again, and this time the RUT backed down too.

    Tomorrow is the 16th. Fall should start tomorrow, or perhaps Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  13. How long do you plan on giving this present model - to the end of the week?

    I thought that it may have looked good this morning but then the last 30
    minute ramp recaptured almost all the drop.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  14. Usually turn dates are good + or - 2. I would give this until Monday to turn. Looks like its doing so today. Won't happen all at once.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hi SS76

    you still only 50% short?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi. No, 100% via TZA. I feel the RUT will magnify the down move on the SPX.

      Delete
  16. SS, are you still short natural gas too?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hi SS, wow 1667 that's a 1000 point move off the 2009 lows. We should at or near a top here I think. You still seeing a 18%-20% down move from here into late July. For some reason if we did not start to pullback in the next day or 2 what would be your max S&P price before you would cover shorts and think the road map may change. Keep up the great work.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  18. Nooooo, cashed out of NG. Such a tough one to trade, and I always end up on the wrong side of the trade there. You can just see my trade history to see where I am currently positioned (TZA with average of $33.50).

    So, I am staying short. This looks really toppy and of course that may be wrong, but I think that my RUT Max is 110, SPX 1680 before covering and re-evaluating.

    Really thinking the commodities are forecasting the market downturn.....wondering if the US debt rating being downgraded is the catalyst...

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi SS76

    You think your roadmap has been invalidated yet? or you still see it valid at today current time frame.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  20. The timeframe is now gone, but price hasn't moved much so perhaps still to come. Remember, I have down into the end of July, and I mentioned it won't all happen at once, so I am happy to continue to hold unless we get a new leg up.

    ReplyDelete
  21. wow, this is hurting and its tough to stick with my plan right about now.

    ReplyDelete
  22. 1010 RUT and I will run for cover. It just missed hitting and so did my stop. Lets see if I've dodged the bullet.

    ReplyDelete
  23. This is crazy SS, were to from here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Muzz, crazy isn't the word. The Roadmap says down into the end of July, but as i mentioned, not all at once, so up and down. The general trend should be down to then with some sharp drops.

      This is what I am playing. RUT at 1010 is my ultimate stop and it just narrowly missed getting hit today. My sell target on TZA is $46 for that time, however I will say that I am just as eager to short Natural Gas in early to mid June as I do feel 2011 is going to replay in that market.

      Delete
  24. Thanks SS, that reversal today was even more crazy than the possible blow off top we witnessed. Looks like it could be a nice topping tail also and for it to reverse like that is a sign this could have run out of puff.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hmmmm, china contracting, fed going to ease as early as June,US downgrade? Now that would be the perfect storm?

    ReplyDelete
  26. I covered $32.70 avg TZA (2.27% loss) as I am feeling uneasy with the market action, looks like the FED is at it again. I will reposition as the trend should continue down, but bounces here and there will provide opportunities. Also looking at Nat Gas going to $5 in the next 2 months, and my probable area to short. Immediately i see Natty going to $4.50 in the next 3 - 4 weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  27. 1636 SPX Holds, and this heads back up. I suspect that the SPX bounces in the near term back to 1670 - 1680 area for a lower high, and where I will reshort.

    ReplyDelete
  28. SS are you still seeing a 18% drop to the November lows by late July?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. will be choppy but will get there. I'll keep with the map as long as the 1697 high holds.

      Looks like the market bounced as I suspected to the 1670-1680.

      I think I'll take profit today. On XIV.

      Delete
  29. Thanks SS, good call on the bounce and yes I agree top should be in this week either a lower high or a slight new high.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Took my profit....reshorted via TZA. Already losing on that trade! lol.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Like you said it will chop around and take sometime, it is very difficult to pick the top. Sometimes better to be early than late as long as it eventually turns your way of course.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Market is starting to sell off. Realizing all this "good news" is bad news for fuelled QE stocks....

    ReplyDelete
  33. dont know if it a sell off yet...could be a minor pullback before rocketing to 1700?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. oh for sure, it will be choppy, but I don't think it takes out the previous high. That is my stop anyways.

      Delete
  34. So I'm watching 1636 again, key level. I will book half there, and if that breaks, then my next target is 1594.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I may just book it all at 1636-1640 and reshort around 1661. Will depend on how much support this level provides.

      Delete
  35. Sold TZA, probably early. Didn't see the RUT responding to the selloff in the SPX and got scared, shouldn't have sold. Anyways, there will be other opportunities.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Watch 1636. Key level. If that holds today, then I may get XIV again for another round.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I must caution, that the 1636 is a really risky area. Breaks this and its air below to 1597 area. So even if I take a chance at 1636 with XIV, it will be with tight stops.

      Delete
  37. XIV bought at 1642 SPX.....lets see the end of day pump!!!! Will sell before close most likely depending how much it rebounds, thinking tomorrow opens positive for the SPX before turning sour.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Cashed out on XIV as suspected the early strength. Given todays news it may be sustained strength the rest of the day. I decided though to go short the gold miners, DUST. Close to overbought on the shorter timeframes.

    All trades posted real-time in my trade history.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Lower high again....seems to be walking its way down. We now have a series of lower highs.

    ReplyDelete
  40. I think I may just hold DUST. Gold is looking weak, and frankly there is more evidence that QE will start tapering off. High costs for miners, lower gold price, I think a good down leg is about to begin. GDX could head back to test its panic low around 15.48 from Oct 2008. If not that low, then I do see 22.56 as a target for GDX.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hi SS are you looking at updating your post on the current position of the market?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Muzz. Nothing to really update. The Trade history is up to date. I own DUST at $78, and its back there. I think GDX dropping to at least 22.56 so I want to be positioned for it. Gold like drops to $1200 as a bottom.

      Delete
  42. 1636 is where the S&P is sitting and this is critical, however it close below it once, and then closed above it yesterday. Need 2 closes below it to confirm at least 1599 as next stop.

    ReplyDelete
  43. So, with the 1697 high observed May 22nd, if we drop 18% it will bring the S&P down to 1391 in the July 29 - Aug 8 timeframe. Interestingly, this is previously resistance which would now be a major support.

    That is the longer view, near term 1599 seems to be a certainty.

    ReplyDelete
  44. There you have it. 1599. How do you like them apples. Now, breaks this decisively below 1597, and we have 1588.

    ReplyDelete
  45. So, still holding DUST, although I should have simply trusted myself with SPXU or TZA. Thats fine.

    GDX is just under its 50 DMA, and a bit above that is my stop. It seems to be major resistance. Also, the SPX bounced off its 50DMA, so perhaps it moves higher from here for another high near 1636 or so (will have to look at the numbers). If that is the case, I would expect that DUST should move higher from here, and my sell target is $95.

    ReplyDelete
  46. SS, do you see more of a bounce here before resuming to the downside?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure if I'm being honest. Not great at the daily moves usually however the boucne off the 1599 level was a good one. That said, I don't think there is much upside here.

      I have a feeling that my GDX analysis may be wrong and as such switched out of my DUST position and into NUGT.

      The 50 DMA is very close for GDX and a close above it is possible, setting up for a move for NUGT of 39% potentially. I don't want to miss this. I'll be watching GOLD though, breaks 1372 and I'll get out of NUGT.

      Delete
  47. Hi SS76

    Are you out of your NUGT yet?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi! See my trade history for real time trades. Head tells me GDX is heading to 22.56, gut is telling me I'm wrong. Went with my gut.

      Delete
  48. I think the VIX is topped out at 18. Bought XIV as it the VIX is overbought. The market will know in advance that the FOMC meeting on the 19/20th will not mean QE tapering, so expect a nice bounce toward end of June, then major plunge sometime early June into July 29 - Aug 8 timeframe.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Well, I stopped out of that trade. Was a risky one with XIV. Anyways, I will probably sit and wait. May take an overnight XIV trade, or see if we get an early sell off in the morning to buy XIV for a trade. Or maybe relook at NUGT/DUST combo again. Either way, I want to make money on this next trade!

    ReplyDelete
  50. what I like about GDX index, is that it always respected the 50 DMA, so it is a safe area to take a long trade when violated.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Hi SS76
    Don't know the price you got XIV in from yesterday, if it was the low. Today is your pay day :)

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  52. Never saw your trade log. your pay day today :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi InvestBB! Yes, at the top beside the Home tab, I have trade history, and post all my trades, win or lose. I will not just blindly hold on to a position like some people.....

      Right now I have NUGT which I should have sold this morning, but yesterday it technically confirmed a buy signal so I have my stop loss set at $9.51. We'll see.

      Delete
  53. Well, I thought I had a stop loss in, and turns out I didn't. Now looking at a major loss on NUGT but since I feel its near bottom, I will hold. GDX has solid support in the $24.75 range, that is likely where I will set my stop. Breaks this, and we get $22.56

    ReplyDelete
  54. Hi SS, how are you seeing the S&P here? looks we are getting closer to a breakdown

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Muzz. If tomorrow is not the low, then Monday will be, but it will be a short term bounce until early July before resuming a plunge downward. I had figured a drop of around 18% culminating on the July 29 - Aug 8 window. Considering the high was 1697 and a week after my May 14 - 16 top prediction, Aug 8 looking likeliest for a low of around 1391 (this was previously a major resistance level now turned support).

      Not sure I would be holding out for that level though, more so I'd hold out for the time frame rather than the price point.

      Delete
  55. Just keep your eye on the prize. S&P will go up and down, but know the trend is down until the end of July at least. That is the beauty of these roadmaps, helps you filter out all the noise.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Thanks SS, I agree late July - early August looks good for a low and yes it's important to keep focused on the big picture and not worry too much about the noise. Looks like we may start to get a bounce in Friday's session.

    ReplyDelete
  57. I have July 5th or 8th as the next peak before resuming downward. I had June 23rd as the potential low, but that has likely happened today with a Hammer formed at the bottom of a downtrend, along with the clear bounce of major support, the multi year high of 1576. Near term, we should see 1620 again I think.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Do you still see 1340 as the low this August?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1391 give the high was higher than forcasted in Mid May. As I suspected last week, the low for the SPX would happen either Friday or Monday. Well, today it is, in fact after this morning, we should see a nice recover toward the end of the day setting up a decent week.

      Hard to believe at this moment, but this is what the roadmap is telling us.

      Delete
  59. Hi SS

    you have a target for the bounce?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1627 at best, but this is a risky bet. What is important is the overall trend. You would be better to look to sell the rip rather than buy the dip. Just know that July 29 - Aug 8 will provide a major long opportunity, and still a ton of profit to the downside leading up to that period.....if the roadmap plays out.

      Delete
  60. Well, GDX hit the lower end of the range from my estimates of 22.56 as mentioned before, target reached (Why didn't I hold on to DUST????).

    Now I'm thinking its a buy, as this is a support level going back some years. Kinda risky, but given the capitulation I think its a good bet.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Hi SS

    Saw you bought UVXY in your trade history.

    You dont see us heading higher into early July anymore with SPX?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  62. Also consider you going in full position with UVXY, it seem pretty certain you are looking for a sure bet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I had bought it for a quick bounce. I sold it this morning. The roadmap doesn't change but I am prone to trade in and out in both directions. That is why I am losing money, lol. Had I stuck with the roadmap, I would be doing great!

      Delete
  63. Do think its good short uvxy around july 29- auguest 8 time frame??

    ReplyDelete
  64. Do think its good short uvxy around july 29- auguest 8 time frame??

    ReplyDelete
  65. Tradergurl, YES. I will be however doing so via XIV.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Looking good for a July 5 or 8th peak as predicted. All the uber news from today and yesterday, what a set up!!!

    Expect a solid drop.

    ReplyDelete
  67. I sold all my xiv today. Looking for re_entry soon. Thank you ss76

    ReplyDelete
  68. Today figures to be the high. Not sure if the best time to buy is in the morning or near close, but I am suspecting the VIX starts to bounce here.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Interesting, Cash VIX is up today.....hopefully futures catch up and shoot higher too.

    ReplyDelete
  70. $VIX back above the 50 and 200 DMA at 15.27...

    ReplyDelete
  71. Hi SS76

    You holding your UVXY position still today?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unfortunately. Decided not to trade it because you just never know if the $VIX futures are going to pre-empt the decline. Looks like its not at this point, but cash VIX is now flat despite a big upday on the S&P. i'll hold until Friday.

      Delete
  72. Printing an inverted hammer on $VIX

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. inverted hammer doesnt seem to do much nowaday when QE is on a bullet train. wondering if you have a stop for your position you looking at for UVXY?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. Ya, certainly not this time.

      My stop is time. I have July 16 as my max pain point if the drop hasn't commenced. This would give 6 - 8 days leeway from my July 8th short term top call given my May 14 - 16 bottom call was 6 days late (May 22nd).

      At that point, I'd just watch.

      Delete
    3. or $45 for UVXY, whichever comes first.

      Delete
  73. Bernake speaks after the market close today......I think his comments will send the markets into a tailspin, along with the FOMC minutes.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Hi SS, market ended flat but futures are up to almost 1670. Do you still see the big drop coming or should we be getting worried

    ReplyDelete
  75. I'm certainly worried if I'm being honest, but I knew that my date of July 8th could be early by 6 days based on what happened in may. Vix is already low, so not as much downside relative to the possible upside, but we could be looking at uvxy of $45... That has me nervous

    ReplyDelete
  76. Thanks but do you still see a drop to 1400 in the next month or 2?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes. I see that in the next 2 - 3 weeks, unless the roadmap inverted and we are heading for a high rather than a low.

      Delete
  77. I see that by August 8th. I'll either look like a genius, or delusional fool, lol, surely a 50/50 chance but the downside reward is huge if that plays out.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Ahhhhh this ain't looking too good at this point. Unless the market takes a big dump shortly I guess it is on to 1800.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Hi SS

    Did you get stop out of your UVXY position yet?

    Also has road map change?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  80. Maybe it has started. :) fully.loaded with vxx.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Maybe it has not started :) why fully loaded with no confirmation?

    ReplyDelete
  82. ss, you are expecting low on aug 16 and there are many who are expecting high on aug 16. it looks like an impt turn date. I am sick of this low volume ramp up

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The roadmap could have inverted. Still sticking to an Aug 8th low.

      Delete
  83. The FOMC meets on the 31st, that could catch a lot of people off guard if any mention of QE tapering comes out. Hard to believe we could rise into Aug 16 but in this market perhaps it's not as hard as we think.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Hi SS76,

    I took a half position to the market upside about a month ago after you predicted a cautious bounce - thankyou! Would it be nuts to stay in? What important date periods do you feel should be watched?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The bounce is stronger than I had thought, and certainly if I was you I'd book the profits and wait for a while. Aug 8th is what I have as a major low since I was a week late on my May 14-16 high. That is a date I would watch. Could perhaps the roadmap have inverted and Aug 8th is a high rather than a low? Maybe.

      Delete
  85. Hi folks. Sorry, I just got back from vacation. I didn't set up a stop, and still am holding on to UVXY. The market hasn't dropped yet however still think we get a major low Aug 8th, if this doesn't happen, I'll have to reassess. Some major damage done with UVXY from my purchase, however the turnaround should be near. Can't believe it, but we are looking perhaps at a short term double top, didn't think it would get back here.

    The drop can be sharp, fast, and scary, and this is what I am banking on.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Folks, I decided to switch my bias from UVXY to DUST. I believe Gold is heading back down.

    This is my safest play until I figure out if Aug 8th is a high or a low.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Gold bull trap:
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2013/07/25/is-golds-rally-a-bull-trap/

    ReplyDelete
  88. ss76, dust moving today,u needed that. uup and fxy are moving . good luck

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ya, I sure did, and now its back to $73. So basically where I bought it, with UVXY heading much lower. I'd consider that still a small win, lol. I feel like GDX will move to 16 as the major bottom with Gold around 1180, and that is my target.

      Delete
  89. Well, it has to be said that my bottom call for Aug 8th is looking very weak and not going to happen. It is quite possible that we are making a high and not a low on the 8th. I'm still short, but definitely going to reassess the plan perhaps by letting my short trade play out and going from there.

    ReplyDelete
  90. For years we hear about doom and gloom, yet the market has gone from 700 to 1700 within the last 5 years. We seem to have reached a stage when fear is at a point when caution is equal to the downside as well as the upside.

    SS can you give us an update soon? I wish to reset so am keen to know when you feel there will be a bounce to the upside.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  91. I will. It takes time to step away and reassess, and if i come out with something I want it to be tangible and somewhat reliable.

    ReplyDelete
  92. Todays S&P 500 Index Ranges

    1842<<<1853<<<1864<<<1875>>>1886>>>1897>>>1906

    ReplyDelete
  93. Brent futures were trading at USD 44.34 per barrel, up 7 cents. CapitalStars

    ReplyDelete
  94. jsut feels like we will not go down yet. Bull market lives on.

    The accurate newsletter at ST also called the RISE of the areo and Defence secrets, they are skyrocketing.

    SEe here ==> http://www.bit.ly/2w53yFS

    ReplyDelete