The goal of this blog is to identify medium term tops and bottoms in the markets. I use a variety of technical indicators to confirm turn dates identified on the 2013 Roadmaps. This blog will always remain free as the intent is that the market is the one who pays me, not you. TimetheTrade (aka TTT) is born. SS76

Sunday, 17 March 2013

Cyprus shaking the market, 2013 FULL YEAR roadmaps at a glance..


So I wanted to start of by saying that I have now posted the FULL YEAR roadmaps for the S&P 500, with all sorts of commentary attached.  You can find this by selecting the 2013 Roadmaps tab at the top of the page.

Now, Cyprus has announced some crazy plan to screw the little guy, setting an asset tax for all those with bank deposits for up to 10%.  That is crazy, and quite frankly grand larson as they attempt to raise funds that are necessary under the terms of their bailout.

Futures are down sharply tonight, however I actually believe the vote on this measure set for Monday, will actually be rejected.  That, or Europe will weigh in and say how unique Cyprus is and that this won't happen anywhere else in Europe.     In other words, I expect this to be a blip on the chart, and for the S&P to continue higher into March 31st as Roadmap #2 suggests.   I'm figuring the dip into May 3rd is roughly 3% - 5%, which is minimal given this run. THE KEY MESSAGE IS, BUY THE DIP.

Futures thanks to Cyprus:


77 comments:

  1. Crucially, Cyprus vote delayed till Thursday...changes thing a bit. Will need leaders to issue statements that everything will be ok!

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  2. S&P 500 thanks to fx tech trade

    Support: - 1548.20, 1541.30 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1512.23, where correction could be. Then follows 1503.12, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1490.83. Continuation will lead to 1485.29.

    Resistance: - 1560.70(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1563.75, where correction may also be. Then 1578.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1592.80. Continuation will lead to 1618.60.

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  3. VIX is spiking....plotting my XIV entry. Hoping DGAZ turns around first though!

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  4. S&P 500 Support/Resistance Levels (thanks to fx tech trade)

    Support: - 1541.30 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1512.23, where correction could be. Then follows 1503.12, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1490.83. Continuation will lead to 1485.29.

    Resistance: - 1560.70(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1563.75, where correction may also be. Then 1578.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1592.80. Continuation will lead to 1618.60.


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  5. what kind of a market is this? it is like a joke :))) up down up down not going anywhere!!! very well planned...

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  6. Your road map # 1 will be proven correct. As you are a ware of, I correctly predicted the Feb 25th bottom well in advance of that time period. Your May top is within one week of my projected high. I am looking for May 18th thru the may 23rd top. At that time, I will be buying puts rather than leveraged index funds.

    All the best to you and your readers.

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  7. Your July 29th bottom maybe delayed by one week. Very closely aligned with my cycle work.

    All the best.

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  8. Welcome back Michael! So you think roadmap 1 eh? It's had me doubting it since the drop in mid January didn't pan out. Thanks for sharing your own cycle dates. Do you think that the July 29th date is too early or late?

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    Replies
    1. Approx one week early. LOL I would want to be one week early than one week late thou.

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    2. Third week of May down into Aug 7th PROMISES to be one hell of a ride.

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  9. One last thought, this coming week is going to be whip saw city. Massive volatility. Change in trend at approx 10:55 am Monday morning. Another change in trend at approx 3:02 Tuesday at 3:02

    Talk later.

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    Replies
    1. Wow, how do you point out the time of day?

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    2. Lets see if it works out first.

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    3. That 10:55 change in trend was approx 25 minutes earlier than expected.

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    4. Terrible accuracy Michael :)

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  10. Replies
    1. LOLOL Not very advanced, 25 minutes off.

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  11. Tommorrow I am expecting follow thru to the down side. Possibly to the 1532 sp level at 3:02 You can use your bacic t/a- rsi stock ect.
    to see if my timing will be correct. If T/A lines up within a half hour, go long. ALWAYS HAVE STOPS IN PLACE PLEASE.

    If for some reason, the stock market rises up into that time frame and the T/a lines up, go short. That one is low probability scenario to unfold thou. All the best every one !

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  12. Watch out for the head fake first thing in the morning. After the head fake down we gOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

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    Replies
    1. Doesn't appear to be playing out eh...moving my UVXY stop to $7.70

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    2. I still believe it will work out just find. Good for you to to bring your stop up. That is playing the market smart.

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  13. LOL, I feel like I am talking to my self. Anybody here?

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    Replies
    1. I read your posts and appreciate you sharing

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  14. That's because everyone's asleep!! (Except me :))

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  15. no, I am getting like 400 views a day, so I know you have an audience.

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  16. S&P 500 (thanks to FX tech trade)

    Support: - 1541.30 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1512.23, where correction could be. Then follows 1503.12, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1490.83. Continuation will lead to 1485.29.

    Resistance: - 1560.70(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1563.75, where correction may also be. Then 1578.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1592.80. Continuation will lead to 1618.60.

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  17. That is the pop I was expecting first thing in the morning.1561 is my place to start shorting here. My stop in place 1563.7

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  18. Please note, I do not expect the sp to reach 1531 due to manipulation by the central banks this morning.

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    Replies
    1. ya, 1531 is quite aggressive, but stranger things have happened. I figure yesterdays low is as low as it could go.

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  19. 2:50- 3:05 good turning point. expecting some kind of low, than up into the end of day.

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  20. For any one who bought SPXU, you could have bought at 27.97

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    Replies
    1. I chose UVXY, average $7.76, stop is in at $7.55

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    2. I certainly do not advise any one to hold these type of instruments longer than One day, if at all.

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    3. Actually, even leery holding it for a few hours. I will be out before the day is done. Not making the same mistake as SC.

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  21. I am not expecting any huge bear market down fall until the 3rd week of May. Play it safe until than.

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  22. Markets have been a very tight trading range, building up energy for its next move.

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    Replies
    1. Could perhaps your CIT happen from a high at 2:50- 3:05pm?

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    2. That is a possibility, for now I will stay with this trade.

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    3. I will be going long into next week, after this trade.

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    4. I was asleep too :)) Thank you Michael for sharing your cycle views.

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  23. Two hours to go, before Change in trend. So far it has been like watching paint dry.

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  24. It is for sure the main trend is up while FED is printing so much money to keep interest rates low. it only goes up up

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  25. Bought SPXU at $28. Will sell before the close (Thanks Michael for your intra-day stuff). Stop placed at $27.85

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  26. LOL four and a half hours later break even.

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  27. Very difficult to see any real trend in the last 5 1/2 hours. I am going to keep my shorts on with my stops. Right now I am back to break even.

    All the best every one.

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  28. Sold 1/2 position for trading discipline sake. If we go past 1565 I may go long.

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  29. I am expecting early weakness tomorrow before a recovery, so I will hold and sell in the AM hopefully at break even or small loss.

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  30. Replies
    1. for sure Joseph! I think its good at getting the general trend, and sometimes nails the exact changes in major trends, just not the smaller ones. Michaels insights are quite valuable and he exhibits good money management which is a lesson for everyone!

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  31. Interesting little sell off happening at the moment, 8 minutes to close. I stress, "little".

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  32. The lack of participation on the RUT indicates the end is near, for the short term. We should have a week of weakness starting next week. I do think we get 1574 by the 28th of this month though, probably big rally on Thursday.

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  33. I am holding my short position for tomorrow morning. I only have 1/2 position. This was a very frustrating trading day with virtually little movement in the markets. Sold 1/2 position spxu 27.95 originally bought at 27.97 2 cent loss. Under the tight trading parameters, no one should have lost any significant amount of money. I sincerely apologize to every one for what I originally saw today and did not happen.

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    1. DO NOT apologize. Sharing ideas that end upright or wrong, are always welcome. I felt towards the close that the action would bring a weak morning, and perhaps the best selling opportunity is this morning. Lots of anxiety over Cyprus opening their banks tomorrow, but by that time the market should be on full bull mode. I think I will cover this morning, and reshort tomorrow at the close, or Monday morning. Weakness should last all of next week. This is my plan, with tight stops. I may just buy DGAZ tomorrow following the weekly storage report as a higher probability play depending if the SPX plays out as. Planned

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    2. DO NOT apologize. Sharing ideas that end upright or wrong, are always welcome. I felt towards the close that the action would bring a weak morning, and perhaps the best selling opportunity is this morning. Lots of anxiety over Cyprus opening their banks tomorrow, but by that time the market should be on full bull mode. I think I will cover this morning, and reshort tomorrow at the close, or Monday morning. Weakness should last all of next week. This is my plan, with tight stops. I may just buy DGAZ tomorrow following the weekly storage report as a higher probability play depending if the SPX plays out as. Planned

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  34. Replies
    1. Nice move, you did better than me. Sold out my other half at 28.33 I am going to scale in some more shorts here spxu $ 28.07 Stop will be the 1563.7sp level

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    2. bought another 1/3 spxu 28.03

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    3. My other third, I will wait for confirmation via the vix. Stop will again be the sp 1563.7 level

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    4. Nice call SS.

      "I am expecting early weakness tomorrow before a recovery, so I will hold and sell in the AM hopefully at break even or small loss"

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    5. Thanks, doesn't always go as planned now does it. Glad I didn't hold out for more. I'm in cash for the evening. Depending how tomorrow plays out will depend if I short the SPX via SPXU, or short Natural Gas via DGAZ.

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  35. S&P 500 (FX Tech trade, thanks!)

    Support: - 1553.26, 1541.30 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1512.23, where correction could be. Then follows 1503.12, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1490.83. Continuation will lead to 1485.29.

    Resistance: - 1565.74, 1570.38 and 1578.00(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1592.80, where correction may also be. Then 1618.60. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1643.00. Continuation will lead to 1665.03.

    For the record, I see at least 1574 today and have since early on because of the roadmap, may even reach 1478 on impulse.

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    Replies
    1. Resistance met right on the nose, but no more. I am happy with my SPXU buy ($27.59) although potential of early strength on Monday, just didn't want to bet on that with a 3 day weekend lots can go wrong!!!

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    2. "For the record, I see at least 1574 today and have since early on because of the roadmap, may even reach 1478 on impulse."

      did you mean 1578?

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  36. Thought you might find this interesting. Correlates to your top in and around now.

    http://blog.wavetrack.com/

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    Replies
    1. Very, thanks for sharing. The difference is that they see this as a major top, with a pretty major drop. I do not. My major top comes in May 14 - 16 timeframe.

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  37. S&P 500 (thanks to fx tech trade)

    Support: - 1564.45, 1553.26, 1541.30 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1512.23, where correction could be. Then follows 1503.12, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1490.83. Continuation will lead to 1485.29.

    Resistance: - 1570.38 and 1578.00(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1592.80, where correction may also be. Then 1618.60. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1643.00. Continuation will lead to 1665.03.


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  38. STOP SPXU set at $27.42, break of 1570.40 may bring 1578

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  39. RUT appears to be leading the charge down.

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  40. Updating trade history as I go. Sold SPXU and bought DGAZ...

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  41. Ready to reshort via SPXU at 1578.....if it gets there. 1570.38 was violated nicely today, so odds are it gets to 1578 as the next major resistance, and a good place to place a short for a scalp. Sold DGAZ today as per my trade history.

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  42. Small caps leading again today. A decent drop is coming.

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  43. Quite pleased with how the roadmap is playing out. We should remain down until Friday at least, but wouldn't get too greedy here. Thinking 1530 is the low on this go, up into may 14-16 before the bigger drop into late July/early Aug

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  44. MCX CRUDE OIL September Tuesday as seen in the daily chart opened at 2990 levels and day high of 3030 levels. During this period price corrected & made day low of 2925 levels finally closed at 2964 levels. capitalstars

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