I am setting up this page to house the road-maps and will provide alternative scenarios also when I think they have a better chance of being in play. Also this will be an easier reference.
Update May 5, 2013
In the March 17 update, I was hesitant in which Roadmap would prevail but for the near term at least, roadmap #1 has shown the way. Now I present Roadmap #3. This roadmap has potential to be the dominant roadmap but this won't be known until we see how the S&P reacts come May 21st. Roadmap #3 is calling for a low then, before reaching new highs in mid June, while the primary roadmap #1 is calling for a decline into the end of July. As you can see by this alternate, major new highs are due at the end of the November. Now this would be ultra interesting.
ROADMAP #3 (Main alternate)
Update Mar 17, 2013
I hereby present the full year roadmaps for 2013. I have 2, cause I don't know which one will play out. At this point Roadmap #2 appears to be coming into play, which has interesting possibilities as you will see. For me, TA closer to the turn dates identified on the maps will give me the confidence to suggest which map is in play. Also, major market events close to the turn date are also major clues that a particular map is prevelant. The good thing, is these maps start to really take different directions come May. Lets take a look at both maps, now illustrated for the entire year.
First I present Roadmap #1. The drop happened much later in 2013 than the roadmap was suggesting and has shaken my confidence in the map. However the low period seems to have coincided nicely however the drop was not so steep, so remains to be seen how prophetic this plays out. I do believe given what we have witnessed so far, this map seems most likely.
ROADMAP #1 (Primary)
Now I present Roadmap #2. The interesting thing about this roadmap is the late February low which the map called correctly, also shows a nice bounce which has played out thus far in March and leading me to believe this map is in play. Now, with markets at all time hights, its make or break at these levels, and with the FED fuelling the market higher, the rally built on air can continue against everyones expectations...Simply, just because I think its impossible, is probably the best indication that this is how it will play out.
Update Mar 14, 2013: The Alternate roadmap seems to be playing out here, since the low came in on Feb 27th. Now it is suggesting higher to March 31st and have no reason to doubt this. As you can see it should continue to grind higher right through June, and when I present new roadmaps you will see an Aug 8th next top. It may be safer to just stick with the trend and not try to short the market, although it just seems too appealing since a correction "has" to come right?
Update Feb 24, 2013: At this point, the Primary Roadmap which suggested a first top Jan 14 is not looking so good, but the low its calling for March 4/5 looks like it could still be in play, just at much higher levels. The Alternate Roadmap called for a first top around around Jan 21 - 28, but as we know it happened much later. The low, which is slated for Feb 25 - Mar 4 is still looking likely with the sequester taking center stage in Washington. We'll know after March 10th how these roadmaps have shaped up and although following the suggested tops on and shorting would have led to losing positions, what the map is telling us is when we get the dip, BUY IT.
S&P Primary Roadmap
This is the roadmap I have most confidence in and although the high was for Jan 14 (currently Jan 18 is the high), its still in play as it may just resolve down now into late February early March.
S&P Alternate Roadmap
This is the alternate that I follow, and whats interesting is it calls for a high Jan 21st, and the drop commencing around the 28th area. Both maps show the next move to be down into late Feb early March so I'll re-evaluate technical indicators closer to these dates.