The goal of this blog is to identify medium term tops and bottoms in the markets. I use a variety of technical indicators to confirm turn dates identified on the 2013 Roadmaps. This blog will always remain free as the intent is that the market is the one who pays me, not you. TimetheTrade (aka TTT) is born. SS76

Wednesday, 6 March 2013

Blow off top?


In recent posts I called short term highs (1530 SPX and 930 RUT), however the retracement didn't go back as far as I thought it would (thought 1460 SPX but 1487 was the max).  Also the Alternate Roadmap called for a Feb 25th - 28th low, and it came in on the 27th.

Now the Alternate Roadmap is looking like we are going up into March 30th, and as such ensure you use stops regardless of which side of the trade you take. I will continue to post daily resistance/support levels for the SPX.

Here is the obvious target (of course if this gets violated, we are in unchartered terrirtory):


So my idea is to just to wait it out and see if we get to 1576, try a short around there but may scale in leading to that time period if price does what I expect.   I do get the feeling though that we will retest 1492 come May 2nd before surging higher into the summer to new and unprecedented highs.  Now, that is according to roadmap #2 even and I have a major turn date of May 3rd as posted the following chart Feb 1st:



In the meantime, I will be going short again Natural Gas as I believe the downside is the most likely bet as the next move down to futures contract price of $3.15, before heading up into a June high probably around $4.

I will sometimes deviate from the plan if I see a quick trade....as always, all trades posted in real time in the Trade Section.

Good luck folks.

20 comments:

  1. Good to see a new post from you.

    I do have May as a prime opportunity for the next down cycle.

    Weekly charts would offer sp'1425/00. I'd be surprised if we break into the 1300s.


    *added you to my site links.
    ---

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ya, looking around it seems the market is having it's way with everyone, hence why my trading has turned to natural gas while keeping an eye on the spx. If we blow past the alltime high this summer, then I think paying attention to the roadmaps will be very important. Good luck.

      Delete
  2. Hi JP. I'll go along with PD in that it's nice to see another post from you.

    Man, last November I allowed my mind to take a venture into the dark side and try to envision the absolute worst inflationary case that could possibly evolve because it has become 100% clear that the global banking mafia has absolutely no intention of allowing any bankruptcy or any default of any sovereign nation to ever occur, ever, ever ever again... no matter what. And I suppose I could understand that because the next one would probably bring their entire damned empire crashing down.

    So they're going to be printing no matter what. In that scenario we'd be looking at an inflationary nightmare on planet earth. Food so expensive that starvation would become the main fear for half the planet, even in the developed countries. In any case, last Nov. I drew up this chart and then hid it from view (except for a couple of people, HighRev being one) because I didn't have the courage to show it, nor did I believe it was even remotely possible. But now I "know" it is possible but I don't want to believe the ruling elite would go to that extent to save their own sorry asses. But they would... in a heartbeat. So I'll show it to you now, since I've started tossing it out there every once in a while these days.

    There are two scenarios on this chart. I think we're in the lower one. But I'm not going to be one bit surprised if we end up in the upper scenario. All the best.
    SPX Monthly

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll take a look AR. Nice to see you and thanks for your comments. I think its safe to say that the "unthinkable" should be "thinkable" in these markets. I also suspect that while everyone is expecting inflation to materialize, I wonder if the opposite happens and we end up with deflation first! This would ruin lots of people betting on the expected results of all the QE in the world today.

      Ya, I've layed low for a while as I figured posting less frequently but with better quality was a better approach. Still reading your site, as it makes me realize I have so much to learn (particularly with currencies).

      Delete
    2. Well I have 'always' argued that the deflation cycle would occur first and it could last a long, long time, measured in years. And 'then' a massive inflationary thrust. But the action these days almost has me convinced that the banks will stop at nothing to prevent any form of credit collapse even if that means sacrificing all currencies and a whole lot of peoples' lives in the process.

      I feel certain that any chance of a deflationary cycle will now 'have to be' triggered by some sort of true black swan event. So the initial stage of that collapse (if it were to happen) would likely catch every bull off guard and would be utterly spectacular. That's the threat the bankers have now forced upon us.

      Thanks for reading what little I post and don't be shy over there. All the best :-)

      Delete
  3. S&P trading levels for today (thanks to fxtechtrade)

    S&P500

    Support: - 1530.00, 1512.23, 1503.12 and 1490.83(main). Break will give 1485.29, where correction could be. Then follows 1473.70, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1462.30. Continuation will lead to 1443.18.

    Resistance: - 1544.26(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1552.30, where correction may also be. Then 1563.75. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1592.80. Continuation will lead to 1618.60.

    ReplyDelete
  4. S&P500 (Thanks to fxtechtrade)

    Support: - 1530.00, 1512.23, 1503.12 and 1490.83(main). Break will give 1485.29, where correction could be. Then follows 1473.70, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1462.30. Continuation will lead to 1443.18..

    Resistance: - 1552.30(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1557.13, where correction may also be. Then 1563.75. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1592.80. Continuation will lead to 1618.60.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. look at that, turned away at 1552.40

      Delete
  5. Equities is crazy now, look at the dollar strength in the past few days or even weeks. Usually they are inversely collated, but now equity is so hyped that it is ignoring this important correlation, crash coming soon? A bear can dream, right?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hello friends,

    Just thought of sharing few very good resources I have come across. We all know how good ZZ is. There are very guys in that calibre.

    Fearless from evilspeculator.com
    http://disqus.com/FearlessTrader/ (check his track record in his past comments)

    Jay (Platy's blog)
    http://planetforecaster.blogspot.in/2013/02/dow.html
    https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0BwXQGeKSOmgpLhfb29DYnhZMUE/edit (new charts, 5/5 is final high)

    forexkong.com (very good for forex trading)

    -Pal

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fearless hasn't posted in awhile

      Delete
  7. I meant

    "There are very few guys in that calibre."

    Sorry I missed rotrot. Now he is posting his comments in play blog.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thanks. Notice my blog list on the main Page. I have what I think are excellent blogs including what you posted. Cheers.

    ReplyDelete
  9. S&P500 (thanks to FX tech trade)

    Support: - 1548.20, 1541.30 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1512.23, where correction could be. Then follows 1503.12, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1490.83. Continuation will lead to 1485.29.

    Resistance: - 1558.10(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1563.75, where correction may also be. Then 1578.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1592.80. Continuation will lead to 1618.60

    ReplyDelete
  10. Nat Gas futures now $3.66....bullish report priced in....weather still cold but spring on the horizon and shoulder season....DGAZ a good buy here at $15.09. This looks to be a TTT moment on the open, or sometime between now and 10am.

    ReplyDelete
  11. S&P500 (Thanks to FX techtrade)

    Support: - 1548.20, 1541.30 and 1530.00(main). Break will give 1512.23, where correction could be. Then follows 1503.12, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1490.83. Continuation will lead to 1485.29.

    Resistance: - 1558.10(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1563.75, where correction may also be. Then 1578.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1592.80. Continuation will lead to 1618.60.

    ReplyDelete
  12. The Alternate roadmap seems to be playing out here, since the low came in on Feb 27th. Now it is suggesting higher to March 31st and have no reason to doubt this. As you can see it should continue to grind higher right through June, and when I present new roadmaps you will see an Aug 8th next top. It may be safer to just stick with the trend and not try to short the market, although it just seems too appealing since a correction "has" to come right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If that's the case by August the VIX should be in the single digits. UVXY should be in the $3 range.

      Delete
    2. That is very possible, but keep in mind the VIX futures is what UVXY tracks....it can be much higher that the spot VIX and as such, the downside never ends. UVXY is good for a day trade, thats it.

      Delete
  13. NYMEX crude for October delivery was up 85 cents at $46.35, having settled the previous session up 67 cents.capitalstars

    ReplyDelete