The goal of this blog is to identify medium term tops and bottoms in the markets. I use a variety of technical indicators to confirm turn dates identified on the 2013 Roadmaps. This blog will always remain free as the intent is that the market is the one who pays me, not you. TimetheTrade (aka TTT) is born. SS76
Sunday, 24 February 2013
Short term Top is in...SPX
Next is down for the S&P, although a retest of 1530 is possible.
On Feb 8th post, the charts indicated that max pain was 1530, and we reached that and stopped at 1530.94 on Feb 19th. My price levels appear to be accurate but time was off as I anticipated the intermediate top happening between Feb 12 - 14, and as we know it happened 5 days later.
Here is the updated S&P Chart from Feb 8th, recognizing that the pitchfork mean is being respected and not violated, it appears the continuing uptrend will only ride the line if that is indeed what Mr.Market is wanting to do and a break above this seems unlikely. Target is 1460, however 1440 is also possible depending on the events driving the S&P down. My thought is that since I see new highs ahead, that 1460 holds as the bottom and correlating with the bottom of the pitchfork.
As predicted on the Fib time scales, the RUT topped out at 932 (930 was predicted). Now in considering this, I am playing with TZA but my first trade is a major loss. I thought that it wouldn't make it past 878, and as such I stopped out rather than holding on for March 4th - 7th since I'm thinking the S&P retests 1530, thus bringing the RUT to approximately 932 again and sometime Monday or Tuesday I'll be reloaded on TZA. What is important on the RUT is that the mid BB point is at 911.76, so I figure a retest of the upper BB which is now at 928, then breakdown and below 911.76 for a second time and confirmation that the low I am anticipating ahead materializes. 899 however must break and is a pivotal point.
Lastly, I want to show the bigger picture on the S&P. Here is a massive rising wedge developing and maturing which is suggesting that we do have higher prices ahead and new highs, perhaps 1576 for a major double top, or at least so I think. This could be a point where the market rockets higher into unchartered territory, but the multitude of breakdowns happening all around us, I do find this highly unlikely