The goal of this blog is to identify medium term tops and bottoms in the markets. I use a variety of technical indicators to confirm turn dates identified on the 2013 Roadmaps. This blog will always remain free as the intent is that the market is the one who pays me, not you. TimetheTrade (aka TTT) is born. SS76

Sunday, 24 February 2013

Short term Top is in...SPX


Next is down for the S&P, although a retest of 1530 is possible.

On Feb 8th post, the charts indicated that max pain was 1530, and we reached that and stopped at 1530.94 on Feb 19th.  My price levels appear to be accurate but time was off as I anticipated the intermediate top happening between Feb 12 - 14, and as we know it happened 5 days later.

Here is the updated S&P Chart from Feb 8th, recognizing that the pitchfork mean is being respected and not violated, it appears the continuing uptrend will only ride the line if that is indeed what Mr.Market is wanting to do and a break above this seems unlikely.   Target is 1460, however 1440 is also possible depending on the events driving the S&P down.  My thought is that since I see new highs ahead, that 1460 holds as the bottom and correlating with the bottom of the pitchfork.

As predicted on the Fib time scales, the RUT topped out at 932 (930 was predicted).  Now in considering this, I am playing with TZA but my first trade is a major loss.  I thought that it wouldn't make it past 878, and as such I stopped out rather than holding on for March 4th - 7th since I'm thinking the S&P retests 1530, thus bringing the RUT to approximately 932 again and sometime Monday or Tuesday I'll be reloaded on TZA.  What is important on the RUT is that the mid BB point is at 911.76, so I figure a retest of the upper BB which is now at 928, then breakdown and below 911.76 for a second time and confirmation that the low I am anticipating ahead materializes. 899 however must break and is a pivotal point.


Lastly, I want to show the bigger picture on the S&P.  Here is a massive rising wedge developing and maturing which is suggesting that we do have higher prices ahead and new highs, perhaps 1576 for a major double top, or at least so I think.   This could be a point where the market rockets higher into unchartered territory, but the multitude of breakdowns happening all around us, I do find this highly unlikely


22 comments:

  1. $RUT weakening, I think its leading...bought UVXY at $9.02 full position. Risky but going with my gut here. SPX at 1525

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  2. VIX has a gap to fill at $18....probably won't wait that long though, however this looks promising.

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  3. Sold UVXY $9.83, full position. Expecting a lot of chop

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  4. I will post the remaining trades I make in the Trades section, in real time. If that interests you, best to subscribe to that section.

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  5. Ok, I think I will be looking at HND (Natural Gas Bear) on the TSX tomorrow, at least my current thinking is this. The latest NG surge is related to the weather but soon the colder forecasts will be bearish for NG.

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  6. 899 RUT and 1495 SPX are key area's, break these and I will reshort.

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    1. no confidence to pull the trigger, will stay in cash overnight and if I miss the big drop, I know that the dip should be bought in a few days time. In the mean time, probably buy HND tomorrow.

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  7. as the RUT and the SPX have cleared 899 and 1495, I am in XIV as indicated in the trade summary. Stop placed, but playing the trade.

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  8. Hey SS, thanks for the fxtechtrade address. Do you have to be a subscriber to see the updated SPX support and resistance levels ? Thanks

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    1. no sweat! no subscription needed. It is located on the main page, left hand side. Here are todays levels:

      S&P500

      Support: - 1490.83(main). Break will give 1485.29, where correction could be. Then follows 1473.70, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1462.30. Continuation will lead to 1443.18.

      Resistance: - 1509.34, 1518.70, 1523.91 and 1528.14(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1539.92, where correction may also be. Then 1544.26. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1552.30. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.

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  9. The market is at a pretty strange place right now. Lots of chop as expected, but should be down into early March as predicted. Of course with the FED playing around here, it may just go up instead to burn all the bears.

    I've decided to buy GASX (3x Nat Gas Bear) as indicated in my trade section as we are heading into shoulder season and the weather models have inflated NG (that usually doesn't end well). Also noting that historically this trade at this time of year should be very profitable.

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  10. UVXY certainly likes to play with people. When you take profit it skyrockets, when you don't it drops like a rock. I am still holding mine at 11, kicking myself for not selling yesterday at 13.8, now it is underwater again. This market is wilder than any roller coaster ride....it takes only 2 days to erase that Monday drop, looks like the Buy the dips mass is still winning with the FED to backstop them

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    1. no kidding Curious. I thought I could trade it, but clearly to me the market internals are suggesting it wants to go higher...1515 could be in the cards today. I figure I will play the Natural Gas bear over the next week, and regroup IF the markets tank, with XIV. Seems like a better strategy.

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  11. Well, not happy I'm stuck with XIV, that last trade was a mistake in my opinion. Had figured that vix futures would sell off into the close as they normally do after a down day....

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    1. so, thankful I got out of XIV yesterday and into DGAZ. I am happy to hold DGAZ for what I expect to be a 20% gain in the next 2 weeks. Then I'll reasses where the S&P is at. I may take a smaller gain on DGAZ if I do get the ultimate low around 1410 on the SPX, then I will load up on XIV.

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  12. 1460 in the next 3 days.....that would be a fantastic opportunity to go long.

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  13. yeah...................................................................

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    1. Yeah, not quite eh! Well, glad I didn't bank on it.

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  14. Replies
    1. Hi Unknown. I don't think thats fair. I called a short term top at 1530 SPX, expected the pullback to reach at least 1460 but rather 1487 was all it went. I publically post my opinions and trade history, which shows my reasoning for doing what I do (you haven't offered any trading idea's/insights). I certainly don't claim to be right, and have the money management to get out of situations and trade my way hopefully back to profit. You can view my trade history to see I am down 5% for the year, SC is down 35%. Just saying. Please do share your thoughts and rationale behind them, this place is meant to share.

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  15. Now what does it look like, up until the end of March, then a down April?

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    1. Hi Joe. The alternate roadmap which seems to be the one to follow, called a Feb 25th low...the low happend Feb 27th. Now its suggesting mostly up from that level into March 31st.

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