The goal of this blog is to identify medium term tops and bottoms in the markets. I use a variety of technical indicators to confirm turn dates identified on the 2013 Roadmaps. This blog will always remain free as the intent is that the market is the one who pays me, not you. TimetheTrade (aka TTT) is born. SS76

Friday, 8 February 2013

S&P Open to the possibilities.....

I think at this point, you have to be open to what the market is going to give you.  Stubbornly, I held my short on the RUT using TZA without using stops and without staggering my entry points.  This has proven to be a poor decision and one I need to learn from.  At this point I feel its more risky to sell  and miss a recovery on TZA rather than to hold.

SPX
So back to the SPX.  Numerous developments have pushed the SPX higher but it really is looking exhausted and 1515 is an area that seems to have been a temporary ceiling, but today has given me the first glimpse that higher is possible and the max pain I see now would be 1530, the mean of the pitchfork (key with the SPX, is it seems reluctant to go over the mean).  I think the way to play this is with stops as it could easily ride the mean higher as time goes on, and therefore crushing shorts who don't have stops, along the way.  We do have a negative divergence in the MACD and RSI is at 66 which has room higher but given the exhausted feel of this I think upside is limited.

So if I consider the bottom of the pitchfork, I see 1450 as the likely target.   I favour a 50% fibonacci pullback so 1436 if 1530 is reached, unless the high is 1517 then the fibonacci target is 1430.



RUT
The RUT is a different beast in that it has lived above the pitchfork mean since January 2nd (as opposed to the SPX which has remained below the mean).  Given the direction I believe the SPX will take and the fact that the RUT ususally outperforms the SPX in both directions, I would suspect that the Feb 25 - Mar 5 timeframe for a low will be a more significant drop for the RUT as illustrated below:  Notice the fib timelines seem to agree with an imminent turn documented below:

-9.5% drop predicted to 830


The MACD had a negative divergence a week ago, and the KST indicator is reading again is at an extreme juncture. The next chart illustrates additional reasons why I am reluctant to sell at this point......notice the extreme KST and subsequent price action of the RUT.  If 9.5% drop in the RUT materializes, that will net me a roughly 12% gain which I will still be pleased with, even if I could have done much better.


By the way, the drop from Sept 26 to Nov 16 was 9.6%.

37 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. How do you form your roadmaps? Looks like what we are getting now is a huge divergence from the road not seen before.

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  3. Hi Joe. I am using the Gann theory that the 60yr and 45yr correlation maps are of utmost importance. If the spx drops into the end of Feb by at least 5%, then the roadmap alternative will look preTty good. Of course, you can never rely on the map alone even thou that would have been very profitable in 2012.

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    1. Thanks, I have seen multiple market projection theories lately and many seem to line up pretty close to to these road map low/high dates.

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  4. S&P FX tech trade support and resistance...

    S&P500

    Support: - 1508.40, 1492.30, 1485.29 and 1473.70(main). Break will give 1462.30, where correction could be. Then follows 1450.23, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1440.00. Continuation will lead to 1430.44.

    Resistance: - 1519.75(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1528.14, where correction may also be. Then 1539.22. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1552.30. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.

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  5. Well, looks like today's candle, white spinning top confirms a buy for Tza.

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  6. S&P500 (thanks to tech trade)

    Support: - 1508.40, 1492.30, 1485.29 and 1473.70(main). Break will give 1462.30, where correction could be. Then follows 1450.23, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1440.00. Continuation will lead to 1430.44.

    Resistance: - 1519.75(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1528.14, where correction may also be. Then 1539.22. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1552.30. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.

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  7. i guess prechter is eating some crow now.....i'm sure it will eventually pull back but not when prechter said it would

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    1. actually anyone that tries to pick a top will be challenged since the odds are against perfection....

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    2. Challenged is an understatement. I'm eating crow now and its quite unbearable. I will keep my patience though as nothing goes up or down in a straight line. 1530 is a potentential S&P high....but still think we see a 5 - 8% correction next, and a 8 - 10% correction in the RUT.

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  8. S&P500 (thanks to fx Tech Trade)

    Support: - 1508.40, 1492.30, 1485.29 and 1473.70(main). Break will give 1462.30, where correction could be. Then follows 1450.23, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1440.00. Continuation will lead to 1430.44.

    Resistance: - 1528.14(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1539.92, where correction may also be. Then 1544.26. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1552.30. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.

    NASDAQ

    Support: - 3180.67, 3164.81, 3146.30 and 3139.10(main). Break will give 3134.70, where correction could be. Then 3121.65, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 3115.23. Continuation will lead to 3103.15.

    Resistance : - 3206.20(main), where the correction could be. Break will bring 3216.50, where the correction may also happen. Then 3225.30. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 3237.58. Continuation will lead to 3263.17.

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  9. There is a guy named Jay in platy's forum. He posted his DOW cycle based on astro. Until 2012, both ZZ and his turn dates matched. Jay,s dates were also bullseye hit. In 2013, Jay,s cycle predicts higher until mid mar or even Apr, eventual top. Then it falls down hard until 2015 end. Seems this is what market following.

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    1. Dhanapal, can you refer me to "platy's forum"? I am not familiar with that one. thank you

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  10. http://planetforecaster.blogspot.in

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  11. Hi Dhanapal, I have read Jay posts in Platy blog, but could not locate the chart that you are talking about. Could you please refer to which post is that? Thanks :) HM2535

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  12. Thanks very much for the info. A link to the charts would be great. The only thing I find difficult about Platy's forum is how to trade around the information as I find it quite vague. That said, my trading here hasn't exactly panned out here so take that with a grain of salt. I just know if I sell TZA, it will be the absolutely wrong thing to do, but I have my limit.

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  13. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25691210/djia-Ju-Sa-Ur.gif

    http://planetforecaster.blogspot.in/2012/02/224-mars-72-cycle.html

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  14. S&P500 Resistance/Support levels (thanks to fx tech trade)

    Support: - 1508.40, 1492.30, 1485.29 and 1473.70(main). Break will give 1462.30, where correction could be. Then follows 1450.23, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1440.00. Continuation will lead to 1430.44.

    Resistance: - 1528.14(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1539.92, where correction may also be. Then 1544.26. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1552.30. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.

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  15. Just realized on my RUT chart, the timeline labelled 5 should actually be at a level closer to 930 based on the trend line. Either way, gotta hold TZA now.

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  16. I have to say, the GDX Gold miners index are almost at critical multi year support......I am thinking NUGT might be in play soon. Have to do some charts to figure out a potential buy target, but $38.65 GDX may be a good place to buy NUGT.

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    1. therefore, $6.15 NUGT would be a good buy. I may do some charts here soon.

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  17. Time has gotten away from me, and 1530 may well not be where this ends. I have comfort that most are calling for 1560 at least!

    Let's see what this week brings.

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    1. u might as well just mention every single point in the index so you could never be wrong
      ur pretty bad at this

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    2. Thanks ZQ for your constructive comments. Clearly I played this incorrectly but at least resistance points are being met and pause is happening at those junctures. Trying to catch the top though is proving elusive.

      If you have some of your own idea's, I do welcome them here.

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  18. RUT now at 930, almost on the time frame suggested. Today/tomorrow could be a major turn day according to the fib time sequence 5 noted on the RUT Chart.....This is probably the best place to buy TZA (although I distinctly remember saying that a couple of times at higher levels...)

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  19. Short term Top will be in tomorrow by 12pm est based on my timing cycles. But confirmation will be tomorrow morning

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  20. 1530 SPX and 930 RUT as the charts I posted Feb 8th indicated as looking to be the top targets. Yes, this is revised from my previous thoughts and I am underwater with TZA as a result so some lessons learned here and I make no bones about it.

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  21. SPX:

    Top of this thread, here is what I had posted:

    Feb 8th
    "Numerous developments have pushed the SPX higher but it really is looking exhausted and 1515 is an area that seems to have been a temporary ceiling, but today has given me the first glimpse that higher is possible and the max pain I see now would be 1530, the mean of the pitchfork (key with the SPX, is it seems reluctant to go over the mean)."

    Followed up by this in the next paragraph:
    "So if I consider the bottom of the pitchfork, I see 1450 as the likely target. I favour a 50% fibonacci pullback so 1436 if 1530 is reached".

    This looks like it has mapped out correctly.

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  22. RUT

    Feb 8th I suggested a turn window of Feb 12 - 14, well that didn't materialize however the fib time window did provide accurate price level of 930.

    So quite happy about this, lets see this correction materialize now. I've played this incorrectly with TZA but I am ready to cash in a profit on it hopefully, and trade accordingly afterwards.

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  23. Oh, and I will say I contemplated taking the loss on TZA at the close yesterday and switching to UVXY, but I resisted as if I am wrong on that move, it will obliterate me.

    I have vowed not to buy UVXY rather short with other instruments as being wrong will give me a second chance, and if VIX futures spike large, then XIV is the play.

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  24. Hey SS76, good work here. Do you have an email address that I could send you something private? Thanks!

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    1. Thank you, and "good work" is relative since I'm still down on TZA, but recent call seems good. Yes, timethetrade@gmail.com

      I'll read it later tonight. All the best.

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  25. So seems the main support broken, this is heading for 1492. Probably heads there by the close the way its going.

    S&P500 (thanks to FX Trade)

    Support: - 1508.40(main). Break will give 1492.30, where correction could be. Then follows 1485.29, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1473.70. Continuation will lead to 1462.30.

    Resistance: - 1518.70, 1523.91 and 1528.14(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1539.92, where correction may also be. Then 1544.26. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1552.30. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.

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  26. if S&P hits 1492, I will sell half my TZA at a loss, and buy it back around 1497 depending on how the RUT acts accordingly..going to look at those levels shortly.

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  27. I have decided to trade this, so placed a stop below yesterdays low, at $10.57 and will take the loss if need be to rebuy lower. I do not think it will go that low, but playing it safe.

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  28. Hey SS, what website do u get your spx pivots from please ?

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