So now that everyone has seen the roadmap, I'm going to focus on the next direction into March 4/5 time frame which I believe is down. There are a number of signs that are pointing to this, here are my main reasons:
The Nikkei I think is going to plunge and the world markets I think will follow however using other reasons to do it (think debt ceiling). RSI way overbought for the last 2 months! You can see the support levels I suspect S1 is the target next -11.4%. KST is a very reliable indicator which also is reading at extreme levels, and suggesting a solid corrections is next. There is more, but you get the picture, these extreme readings are eerily similar to March 2012, and from there the Nikkei dropped 19%.
Take a look at this chart:
Nikkei
Now, lets see some more charts:
RUT
TRAN
So, these are the main reasons which give me confidence that the current time would make a good short as we are in overheated markets.....will it lead to a trend change? Time will tell. In the correlation chart I'm most confident in, I think we are down into March 4/5th and these charts, are giving me confidence that this is a safe place to short.
I am positioned as indicated in the trade history section which I will post in real time, however want to issue a word of caution. Do NOT use UVXY as a means to short the market. You will lose your shirt. I like TZA at the moment as the last 2 candles have formed a Bullish Harami which is hopefully confirmed tomorrow.
Icing on the cake?
Good to see your own analysis here.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking that the blog would have to be renamed to "Follow the blue line from the MRCI website high probability trades"
Good work.
Thanks Ange. That was always my intent. Looking forward to contributions from you and others. SPX holding here and on a smaller time frame appears to want to make a push higher. A gap higher followed by a close lower than the open would satisfy a sell signal for me, so something to consider.
ReplyDelete1478.45 SPX open today, close below this is important to confirm a sell signal.
ReplyDeleteSS, glad to see your blog. Look forward to your ongoing analysis. Also, glad you highlighted UVXY. I've never traded it for the obvious reasons. I think SC has lost a lot of credibility (and a lot of followers) over the last nine months by pushing UVXY so much.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the great work.
Thank you. I think you have to be humble enough to admit when you are wrong, and transparent enough so that you are judged on results. No one does that, and this will either highlight how good the information posted here is, or conversly how bad it is.
DeleteI too look forward to any insight you can bring to the table.
I'm considering adding to my shorts near the close today.
Deletetesting
ReplyDeleteThats really strange. I posted two different post, they never showed up on your blog.
ReplyDeleteActuall, very strange as I've seen the email:
ReplyDeleteM Myers has left a new comment on your post "S&P ready for a correction....":
Their still a out side chance for the sp to go to 1493-95 level. Have stops in place. It is very dangerous to try to pick a top.
I will try again. .38 sp point out on my possible projection today. I thought it may get up to 1483 sp level. I went short close to that level. It is usually a fools game to try to pick a top.
ReplyDeleteAll the best every one.
If we don't get confirmation on my candle analysis today or tomorrow, then the sell signal is invalidated however I think I'll hold my TZA as its very oversold and should give a nice bounce back.
ReplyDeleteAs you said, stops are important. I'm confident in my trade but thats good advice for everyone.
I am going to refuse posting on SC site any more. He has done a disservice to many novice investors by encouraging others into that UVXY shorting vehicle. He has some responsibility to his followers to fully explain the dangers of using UVXY I certainly feel the emotional pain that some of his followers must be going thru.
ReplyDeleteGood luck every one
I know, its crazy. Hopefully people don't continue to get swayed by the fancy charts that are "telling" him to buy UVXY cause they simply will bankrupt people. I've been hurt quite bad with UVXY in the past, learnt my lesson. If UVXY was to make some intraday move, you could try and catch it for a ride, but it has to be a short ride you close out during the same trading session in my view.
DeleteI have never used that UVXY vehicle. I consider myself a well seasoned veteran and still would not touch it with a ten foot pole.
DeleteThat Fake print I spoke of last night maybe in play. If it is, a lot of bears are going to feel a lot of pain. I took off some shorts here, will reload a little later.Good luck every one
ReplyDeleteWhat was fp yesterday did not see your post
ReplyDeleteI mentioned the fake print on IWM for 89.74 It is now at 88.45 It was on yesterdays post last night
ReplyDeleteYes, I saw that although have seen many fake prints not materialize, I guess its like everything else and an indicator of whats possible.
DeleteMy first price Target for the $RUT is 839 (-5.7% from todays price), and this I see happening by next Friday only if it breaks below 862. If 862 holds then I still see it going down, but perhaps more gradually.
ReplyDeleteUltimately I see a target of 802 for March 4th/5th on the $RUT approximately, a 10% decline which would put TZA at approximately $14.80 to $15.
Ss76. Can u have the comments. The latest ones on the top
ReplyDeleteSs76. Can u have the comments. The latest ones on the top
ReplyDeleteWould you really prefer it that way? I was thinking that this was better as is because then you see the replies to others posts on a logical fashion....but maybe thats just me....I'll play around with it and see whats possible.
DeleteYes I agree with you Rose.
DeleteSorry to disagree... but I like the top down approach. Easier (for me) to catch the flow.
DeleteTurns out apparnetly using Blogger its an issue to change the order of posts....so looks like it stays the way it is.
DeleteOnly about 40% of these Fake prints come into fruition.
ReplyDeleteOk, I'll consider it. Thanks for the feedback. Maybe I'll do a poll or something like that!
ReplyDeleteWow SS, welldone on your blog. I'm Michael from CIT blog, i saw your link on SC's site and decided to check it out. Nice one mate,
ReplyDeleteI'll call you Mishka so I don't get confused! Welcome, and thanks for the kind words. I hope this adds value. I'm taking a bit of a beating on my first trade TZA, but I'm confident I'll be looking green soon on it.
DeleteToday was the last of my three day turning points. Hopefully us bears will be able to come out of our caves tomorrow. I originally got out of my longs at the 1472 area. With ac-couple swing trades I am averaged 1474 level short. Bleeding by 7 SP points. It does not feel good. I looking for a downward push from some time tomorrow into next week. Hang in their. Best of luck every one.
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing. Good work! Sometimes we linger around tops, other times we blow through resistance in blowoff top fashion. Can't declare the sell is on until the market confirms it. Spx only finished 2 points higher from where it opened.
DeleteMarket looks exhausted. Big news from China overnight and futures haven't budged. Confirmation of a sell seems likely for the s&p and the Rut. There are certainly plenty reasons to buy.
ReplyDeleteJust a question I've been asking myself, where is all the chatter about the debt cieling? This is setting up a big opportunity!
I think it may go green today, looking at 1385 tops.....may be a good place to short even though I am already short.
ReplyDeleteWe may reach the 1481.5 level That would be a .618 bounce up into that area.
ReplyDeleteThe top of the gap from yesterday was the place to unload some shorts to reload later.
All the best every one.
I feel sorry for those who bought uvxy, down 9.74%
ReplyDeleteMyers, once again you're sharp with your price targets which I struggle with. As for UVXY, I am going to be sporadic in how much I post on SC's site since he's devoted to that trading vehicle and is too stubborn which is dangerous (I do believe his intentions are good but he's misguided).
ReplyDeleteHe is now down 17% on UVXY. Unreal.
It maybe a good idea to transfer part of that message from SC site to here. In-respect to the comparison of the TZA vs uvwy loses. This way you are able to communicate more effectively with the learning curve of playing with TZA vs uvwy. Just a thought.
DeleteAll the best.
Hey SS76, thanks for putting this together. Believe you were on Change In Trend (great site, too paid it went paid) and a fellow Canadian. I'm surprised there isn't ceiling debt chaos, but I suspect it won't belong before the media outlets start to focus on this... then, we'll have our pullback.
ReplyDeleteHi! Yes, that is me from the CIT site. I really really enjoyed it there and felt a loss when it went paid, but I respect their decisions and am not one to sulk over it. So I thought I would try to re-create an avenue for positive stock market discussion for both bulls and bears. If there is one thing thats for sure, nothing in this market happens the "way its suppose to".
DeleteWelcome aboard, look forward to your contributions.
If they gave discounts to Canadians, I would consider it. LOL I personally did not feel wanted their due to Anthonys comments towards me and my Fake prints.
DeleteSS76 it would be nice to attract an astrologer or two for further feed back like Peggy and Karen.
ReplyDeleteI would, but I don't have their contact info. That information is valuable as well taken along with other methods of analysis. I personally have been quite skeptical of using astrology however Play's GMars 72 lined up well with other turning points so certainly helps.
DeleteI am going to try to short the SP here at the .618 retrace bounce in the market today from this mornings lows.
ReplyDelete1481.50 level
DeleteI will wait for the trend to take place first.
DeleteLooks like the OPTIONS boys want to clear the bears out of the way. I did not make the trade. I do not like to trade option expiry day, to much hanky pankey.
ReplyDeleteYa, figured this morning the way things were lining up that we were looking at 1485 today.
ReplyDeleteNice call from this morning.
DeleteCan you not do a little better with your calls for the EOD !! You were out by .05 LOL LOL
DeleteSS, if interested Platy's blog is http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/.
ReplyDeleteI just bought some more shorts here at 1484.75 sp level from this mornings sale of shorts.
ReplyDeleteHi
ReplyDeleteAnthony here from change in trend. SS congrats on your blog. Some friendly advice steer clear of SC's site and those volatility instruments.
I know some of you are aggrieved at the decision to go subscription, but maybe i can drop in now and again.
Market has likely put in a short term top but any downmove may be limited in time. Looking for the ultimate top by the end of Jan as per the latest roadmap.
All the best with your project.
Hi Anthony! Thanks for sharing your knowledge here. Interestingly the Elliott bloggers have a third wave up terminating January 29th at 1503.
DeleteAs for your decision to make money from your work, nothing wrong with that.
Thanks for adding your comments and the good advice regarding SC's blog.
This post has been made public
ReplyDeleteThanks
Anthony
http://change-in-trend.com/key-support-critical-to-bears/
I like what you are creating here SS...thanks.
ReplyDeleteThanks testy! Hopefully some good knowledge is shared here!
ReplyDeleteHi SS, are you a full time trader ?
ReplyDeleteHardly! I've got a full time job and trying to make a few bucks doing this inbetween. I have acceSs to a computer all day so able to watch the market but I think a couple of things are important:
DeleteA) that a plan is in mind (I.e.the roadmap)
B) that the plan has stops be it mental or actual
C) that you can adapt to what the market gives you.
I have a) and b), now watching closely to see if c) aligns with a) then all is good, but if not, you gotta be smart and wait until a new signal becomes clear.
I will post some updated charts tonight. From what I can see nothing has changed and I have some near term targets for the initial drop.
ReplyDelete