The roadmap is calling for the trend to change down into the March 4th/5th however although this map has proven reliable, this can change and if so then the 2013 roadmap must be questioned. The end of 2011 into 2012 had a similar divergence so I'm not that worried at the current time, but we still need to watch support and resistance levels along with some other indications.
So with that said, my thoughts haven't changed much since my previous post, this market is about to correct downward in a big way. Lets see what the following charts are showing us:
S&P
I'm not so sure that this S&P chart is very conclusive. Yes, its close to over bought and yes the KST is also at an extreme level so we know that a change will happen from levels not far from here, but we also know that it can hang around here for a while. Why do I think this will change soon? Well, the 2013 roadmap of course
In the bigger picture, you can see what is setting up for after the June high indicated on the 2013 roadmap which appears to be a rather lethal looking rising wedge which I think will resolve to the downside. Again, time is getting close.
If Friday was the high, then we are looking at some basic fibonacci retracements/support levels at 1453 as a first support and 1432 as the next major support. These are using the November low, and once we reach the projected June high, we'll look at fib levels from the 2012 low in June.
Now lets take a look at the RUT and TRANS for possible direction
RUT
The situation with the RUT is telling, the KST indicator over the last several months has been quite decisive when it turns, and its looking like that's happening (again at extreme levels, so not surprising). RSI is at extreme levels also and I think that this rally is already long in the tooth. This seems to me that it will lead the S&P into its next move down into March.
In looking at fib levels, assuming a top on Friday, 862 then 843 look likely targets, but for a March low I'm thinking roughly 813 now.
TRANS
Given the levels of extremes here, the TRANS is the biggest indicator that this overheated market will have a solid correction. RSI way overbought, KST into major extremes, and combined with everything else discussed above, you have a TTT moment (although I was early with my TZA buy).
I would also mention that the boys at CIT are have suggested perhaps a low on the 23rd Jan an up into the 30th, which fits what Danerics blog is suggesting which third wave up terminating January 29th at 1503.
ReplyDeleteJust something to keep in mind.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeletess,
ReplyDeletegreat start to your blog. do you think you could change the background from black to white and the letters white , which would cause less strain on the eyes. Also would you willing to share your background in terms of trading, like years of trading, percent gain in the last few years. this way participants on the blog can get to know you better.
thanks
Hi and welcome. I'll certainly look into changes as I've been thinking the same so will certainly experiment. I have been trading for many years and had spent huge winners, and big lowers. Won big on trading well researched juniors, but got burnt nicely on natural gas bull etfs and Vix futures etfs. I can safely say that I am far more disciplined now and understand how these etfs operate but in terms of success in would rather let my trade history here do the talking. I'm down on my first trade but unlike many other blogs, I will be open and honest with my trades and rationale for placing them. The ides here is not to gain a bunch of followers been but rather a place where many ideas and approaches to trading the market are shared.
Deletethanks
DeleteJust realized that my tablet changed some words of Hi and welcome. I'll certainly look into changes as I've been thinking the same so will certainly experiment. I have been trading for many years and had some huge winners, and big losers. Won big on trading well researched juniors, but got burnt nicely on natural gas bull etfs and Vix futures etfs. I can safely say that I am far more disciplined now and understand how these etfs operate but in terms of success in would rather let my trade history here do the talking. I'm down on my first trade but unlike many other blogs, I will be open and honest with my trades and rationale for placing them. The ides here is not to gain a bunch of followers been but rather a place where many ideas and approaches to trading the market are shared. .
DeleteOne of the reasons I bought and went short (1484.5)SP late Friday, was the small spike up in UVXY. Some one went on a buying s free. 1/4 billion dollars of UVXY was purchased.
ReplyDeleteCongrats on the new blog. Hope that everyone can make some money in 2013. EW seems to be calling for the end of wave 3 and the start of wave4, then final high. I think we are not far from the start of wave 4 when I look at FX. Last Friday, when SPX was ramping at the last hour, risk currencies were not participating. Also USDJPY has gone on a parabolic run the past 2 months, it might be time for a breather. Yen strong usually has a risk off tone in it. AUDUSD has been in a triangle in its weekly chart, it needs to finish e down to about 0.98 (now at 1.05) before launching beyond 1.1.
ReplyDeleteHowever, this EW site I read is also calling for the dollar to be in a triangle targeting 80.5 before collapsing to below 78..So take the above with a grain of salt..
Thanks curious, and welcome aboard.
DeleteGood morning everyone from Canada. Looks like today is a boring day...any prediction for tomorrow open? Asia ended mixed last night.
ReplyDeleteJapan got hammered....would like to see that happen over here. Indications right now are that we may have a positive start, but who knows with all the Washington Rhetoric.
DeleteAs we've all learned, when the SPX drops the TSX get's absolutely drop kicked. Been a while since I've seen those 200 point down days however. Won't be long... anything over 12,500 seems ripe.
ReplyDeleteI think it will be an interesting week, with spx at 1488 in overnight session, the slow squeeze continues.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone knows what's going to happen next, roadmap after roadmap seems inverted :-)
In any case Wednesday could be a rally day based on Platy Ceres 36 and also mercury Jupiter aspect but Friday looking down. We shall see
Hey, a lot can happen between now and then, but this vote on Wednesday looks DOA. In terms of the roadmap, as I mentioned on my origional post, its too early to tell if its been inverted as there have been other points where it appears it was going to invert only to revert back. Therefore given the technical indicators combined with the roadmap, I think everything is still on track. In hindsight I should have placed a higher stop but still happy with my entry in TZA. I wish there was a similar ETF instrument for the Transports...If you think about it, Demarks estimate of 1492 looks about right, and he anticipates a 5.5% correction once this is reached:
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/demark-sees-s-p-500-falling-5-5-after-peak-near-1-500.html
Eerie eh
DeleteI've added a COT data page as well...
ReplyDeleteI have also added my alternate roadmap for the S&P until mid June. According to the alternate, the high comes Jan 21 and the drop happens on Jan 28,down into Feb 25th which may line up with M Myers low.
ReplyDeleteSo certainly something to watch for. I still think the primary map is the one in play but time will tell. Having both maps while considering technical indicators at turning points will help in determining direction.
I wish I had a way to embed images in these posts, cause I used Andrews Pitchfork method giving me prices of 1508 around the 28th.
A song comes to mind. Kenny Rogers, Know when to hold them and know when to fold them. I will elaborate more later tonight.
ReplyDeleteGood luck every one.
Love that song love king kenny
Deleteanyone watching the firework on USDJPY overnight?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deleteyep, all i can say is USD fell ~ lol
DeleteNikkei dowm 2%. Canary in the coal mine.
ReplyDeleteSS, Really like the changes you might on the blog. Much easier to read and much easier on the eyes. Very professional looking. Also, addition of the roadmap and COT tabs at the top are great.
ReplyDeleteThanks! Will be even better when my trade pans out, but I think thats coming. I appreciate the feedback and ideas to make it better.
DeleteLooking to buy this dip, my indicators are not calling for a trend day, far from it
ReplyDeletePlaty is suggesting 23-25 is trend change, I assume that is what your thinking?
DeleteMeant to post the following this morning, I get this from FX tech trade:
ReplyDeleteS&P500
Support: - 1473.70, 1462.30, 1450.23 and 1440.00(main). Break will give 1430.44, where correction could be. Then follows 1419.41, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1410.90. Continuation will lead to 1402.81.
Resistance: - 1491.30(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1501.20, where correction may also be. Then 1516.70. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1539.22. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.
That's right SS, I think the trend from tomorrow after a possible high today or tomorrow will last into the weekend where there is a sun Jupiter trine which tends to be a strong market move, let's not forget full moon at the weekend as well. So next week is looking up but we have to wait and see
ReplyDeleteNow Platy sees the potential of the 23 & 25th being combined into one move, so if I understand correctly then you see down into the weekend, and then up again next week?
DeleteMy Alternate roadmap I posted in the 2013 Roadmaps section which is gaining more steam the longer we go without a reversal calls for a high on the 21st (+- 2 days), and then slow trend down into the 26 - 28 time frame before dropping off sharply until late February or so.
As I mentioned earlier about Kennys song, Know when to hold them and know when to fold them. I have not heard that song in years, but yet it kept on coming to my mind this weekend. It was my intuition, I sold out of my shorts. Will reload at the higher levels, Close to the 1500 level. Still looking for some kind of significant low in later Feb
ReplyDeleteI know the song well. My stop is at $11.10 on TZA, so we'll see if it gets there. I am expecting a 20 - 25% move for TZA higher from my buy position so we'll see, but I can only stomach watching it not materialize for so long hence my stop.
ReplyDeleteTook easy 4.5pt profit now my resistance is 1490 & 95, looking to
ReplyDeletemy indicators for sell signal .
I agree with Platy, down from tomorrow into the weekend then up next week but as usual I trade the charts
Nice catch Mishka !
DeleteUNIVERSAL TRUTH: While trader studied market situation, the latter suddenly and sharply changed.
ReplyDeleteRemember those Fake prints I posted last week. I will not post any Fake Prints unless their is some validity to them. So far, I have posted four of them on other blogs including this one which have come true. Will I be 5/5 ?
ReplyDeleteIWM 89.74 it is now 89
Pardon me, I have only posted two fake prints on this blog, that have yet to manifest. Getting close thou.
DeleteYup, pretty darn close eh. Once again, great call and good for you for repositioning (something I should have probably considered).
DeleteThe other Fp was for the DIA 137 The high for today is 136.62 Getting close.
DeleteTomorrow certainly looks likely for the drop to begin at least for the rest of the week with my feeling that the congressional vote on the debt limit extension failing.
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree. We are in a topping process where some bears will not be able to take the pain and sell out. Yes I sold out with the intention of buying back at the higher levels. I will be back in shortly for the rough ride down. Their will still be lots of whips saws on the way down.
DeleteGood luck every one !
SS76 just make sure your stop does not get taken out and comes back whips the other way on you.
DeleteTo be honest, I think after today I will remove my stop Time will start to be a factor now along with overbought levels, combined with both the primary and alternate roadmap getting stopped out now would probably be a mistake.
Delete"Suddenly, market handicappers are excitedly and loudly heralding a new period of comfort and calm"
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/investors-post-crisis-mood-catches-market-message-173047179.html?l=1
A few points higher, I will start to scale in some shorts. SP 1490 at the moment.
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling we are going to wake up to a 15 - 20 point gap down sometime this week....maybe even tomorrow or Thursday. What time is the vote tomorrow on the debt ceiling extension?
ReplyDeleteas mentioned earlier, 1491.30 is the main resistance for today, and the high so far is 1491.15.
ReplyDeleteRe entered short from this morning sell, average price from sell sp 1486.5 bought back 1/2 position near the close at 1491.65
ReplyDeleteLost 2 points from fridays short at 1484.5
I am still in the red approx sp points 6.21 sp points. I will have to play the futures tonight to make sure we do not gap down with out me on the trade.
Good luck every one.
re - calculated my figures, from 6.21 to 6.79 sp points in the red. I still have a little under 1/2 position to go short. I am hoping for a head shake in the morning to go 100% short.
DeleteAll the best every one
Wow that was a short squeeze at the close ! In theory, we should have seen the high today but the overnight session can bring anythg 1495 number to watch
ReplyDeleteI was very annoyed I did not catch the high of the day. I put my order in with 30 seconds left in the trading day.
ReplyDeleteFake print DIA 137 high for today 136.77 IWM 89.74 todays high 89.21 creeping up their. Possibly a head fake in the morning, than down.
ReplyDeleteonly 2 days in last 5 years w/ more overbought stocks than today (398) were 10/27 and 10/28/11 <--declined 9% next 3-wks
ReplyDeleteThe decline in 3 weeks does not come in line with my date. Feb 25th All thou I am open to it.
DeleteHi SS76,
ReplyDeleteNice to see your blog:).
-Pal
Thanks Pal!
DeleteJAPAN! Down another 1.7%. You'll be seeing similar action here soon.
ReplyDeleteS&P Support/Resistence levels
ReplyDeleteSupport: - 1485.29 and 1473.70(main). Break will give 1462.30, where correction could be. Then follows 1450.23, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we could see 1440.00. Continuation will lead to 1430.44.
Resistance: - 1497.22(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1509.50, where correction may also be. Then 1516.70. Be there a strong impulse, we could see 1539.22. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.
I am now 90% short. Bought some more shorts at the 1492.56 sp level, Will add more shorts when I see the down trend in tact. Good luck every one.
ReplyDeleteI'm short as well but i'm not seeing a trend down day today, this dip might be bought, be careful bears :-)
ReplyDeleteThis is going to be a very boring market for the next 2 weeks. I will be looking at the end of the first week of Feb to buy some puts. As I posted in a earlier post ( week ago), I only see a 9-11% correction in the markets. I hope I am wrong and the markets will have a severe correction. For the next 2 weeks I will be doing some swing trading and taking profits a long the way. Mr Market has some of my money and I plan on getting it back. LOL
ReplyDeleteI will be taking some profit hopefully when that gap from last week is filled. 1472 level
All the best every one
by the way, 9 - 11% drop would be great, representing a nice 25 - 30% gain on an ETF!
DeleteI'm with you Michael. I want to trade around resistance support leves which is why I am posting these daily now for others, and hopefully have some success. I won't do this though until I am in the green on my trade.
ReplyDeleteWe have a potential bullish reversal for TZA using Candlestick analysis, with confirmation needed tomorrow. The open is key and will be the benchmark on whether or not the buy signal for this bear etf's is confirmed. SPXU can't be far behind.
ReplyDeleteFYI, I've posted a poll on the right-hand side regarding the recent visual changes I've made here.
ReplyDeleteI am looking at this possibility playing out within the next three trading days. A break of 1483 level may lead all the way down to the 1455 area. From their I may go back long to the up side again. I am not a bull nor a bear. I just take what Mr Market will give me. We will have a few days of whip saws, great for swing traders.
ReplyDeleteAll the best every one.
My approach is similar to yours, and appreciate your input. My plan is to cover my tza at support levels assuming of course the RUT comes for the ride which it usually does and moreso. I will sell in 3 batches. So 1473, 1462, and hopefully 1450 to 1453. Foolsgold from Danerics blog has 1457 as the low on Friday.
ReplyDeleteLooks like that foolsgold is quite good. He should join us here lol
ReplyDeleteI'm trying, he's that good but Daerics blog is really toxic in my opinion
ReplyDeleteDaily trading levels thanks to FX Tech Trade:
ReplyDeleteS&P500
Support: - 1485.29 and 1473.70(main). Break will give 1462.30, where correction could be. Then follows 1450.23, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1440.00. Continuation will lead to 1430.44.
Resistance: - 1497.22(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1509.50, where correction may also be. Then 1516.70. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1539.22. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.
SS, just my opinion but do not care for the new graphic (picture) at top of page. Much too big and to hard to read. I liked the text heading better.
ReplyDeleteAppreciate the feedback.
DeleteLooks like the "Alternate" Roadmap is coming into play. It forecasts an approximate 6% drop from these levels into the 25th of Feb timeframe, so approximately 1410 area before heading back to new highs. This is something to keep an open mind towards and I'm starting to lean more this way with what the market is telling us. Probably maximum upside here is to 1509, and then down to 1410 - 1425 area on Feb 5th. This actually fits with the large rising wedge diagram I posted above.
ReplyDeleteAlso, looks like VIX is putting in a bottom.
ReplyDeleteAlso, todays TZA open of $11.31 we must close above this to have a clear buy signal/sell on the RUT, and although this does not look likely at the moment, I would not rule it out this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteAlso have a lower low on the SPX...
ReplyDeleteLining up, wish I scaled in my shorts though. Lesson learned.
Seeing shift of momentum, signal ive been waiting for. short 1500
ReplyDeleteNice move Mishka!!! The planets align!
DeleteHi SS
ReplyDeletehave you consider just keep buying the deep?
Thanks!
Hi InvestBB. The overall trend will resume back higher after late February Early March so no, I want to make money on this expected downleg.....with that said though, I would will ride the train to new highs in June probably using XIV.
DeleteClose above 11.31 on TZA confirms a Buy for the ETF. Looking likely.
ReplyDeleteThanks SS, this is the 1st real rejection I'm seeing so here more down to come. Tomorrow in theory should be big red at least till late afternoon due to mercury/Jupiter aspect
ReplyDeleteOver the weekend it's the mighty sun Jupiter trine and full moon which could turn the market back up next week convieniently into month end. Just my two cents
Thanks for that bit of info and I've been cross following Platy's blog looking for some alignment in what I see and what the planets are suggesting. Nice combo IMO...
DeleteCalling an $11.41 close on TZA...
ReplyDeleteNo confirmation today on TZA, sigh. Maybe tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWell, looks like we will get a gap up today. Market certainly trying to crush any shorts. Max upside today is 1508, but I think we gap and crap with us testing first support which I will post shortly.
ReplyDeleteDaily support levels to watch for today.
ReplyDeleteS&P500
Support: - 1485.29 and 1473.70(main). Break will give 1462.30, where correction could be. Then follows 1450.23, where correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1440.00. Continuation will lead to 1430.44.
Resistance: - 1507.23(main), where a correction may happen. Break would result in 1509.50, where correction may also be. Then 1516.70. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 1539.22. Continuation will lead to 1563.75.
Well, Mr. Market has a way of making fools out of predictions, and all the TA work in the world must be open to what the market wants to do. 1507 is absolutely key in my opinion. My charts, TA, Roadmaps, and intuition all tell me we should turn down sharply, but this has been the case all week and it hasn't happened.
DeleteSo certainly need to keep an eye on the prize as we will not remain up here for much longer and patience will be rewarded, and that is the reason I started the blog, to illustrate the plan, stick with it, and reap the rewards. I anticipate a solid gain on my TZA investment.
Hello SS76 - great blog. I have a system that has been pretty reliable, and it is showing extremes on my daily and weekly indicators. That being said the momentum could continue before resolving - some are calling for 1550 S&P before reversal, that would certainly knock all the bears out but I think reversal will take place within the next 2 weeks. My only concern is similar action from last Jan/Feb where the market continued chugging along at extremes for several months before reversing so anything is possible. Keep up the good work and hope we see a reveral soon (at least within next 2 weeks)!!
ReplyDeleteThanks DD_ING. Yes, it certainly can remain elevated for the SPX. In terms of the RUT which is what I am playing at the moment though, it hasn't been as far as I can see, overbought to this level, and overbought for this length of time. The average correction from below these levels is significant (6 - 11% range). So I think I will continue to hold TZA as getting out really means I may miss the opportunity while I think the downside is limited.
ReplyDeleteSS76 - agree once the RUT reverses it will be sharp. The more extreme to the upside it goes, the harder it will fall. I am holding some TZA also so I am with you on this one, and when it reverses it could do it overnight and you lose alot if you are out of your position - that is also why I am holding on tight....
ReplyDeletemy indicators not showing a trend day ! This will most probably be sold off today
ReplyDeleteTZA candlestick buy signal triggered if it closes above the open, $11.07.
ReplyDeletePivot Points Jan 25, 2013 -
ReplyDeleteS3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
Classic 1478.77 1485.11 1489.97 1496.31 1501.17 1507.51 1512.37
Fibonacci 1485.11 1489.39 1492.03 1496.31 1500.59 1503.23 1507.51
Camarilla 1491.74 1492.77 1493.79 1496.31 1495.85 1496.87 1497.90
Woodie's 1478.01 1484.73 1489.21 1495.93 1500.41 1507.13 1511.61
DeMark's - - 1493.13 1497.89 1504.33 - -
Really looking like the alternate roadmap is in play...
ReplyDeletehttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6gfa6yCI2_M/UP4KO-l5A1I/AAAAAAAAAEM/A9UxqJgjz24/s1600/2013+Alternate+S&P+Roadmap.JPG
I will have a new update this weekend, and need to consider that the 28th (+ 2 or 3 days) will mark beginning of the drop. It's sure been painful getting here mostly due to not scaling in my shorts. Have a nice weekend everyone.