Firstly, welcome to my blog and my first attempt of a blog of any kind. I'll cut right to the chase. Important to note that my charts and forecasts are always focused on time rather than price.
I am posting my 2013 Roadmap which takes us to mid June and have chosen not to extend this roadmap because I want to ensure the correlation chart I am using doesn't go off track, making a longer term chart useless if it does. You'll notice some high and low dates on the chart which I estimate the market will mimic At the moment, my January 14th top prediction I've been posting on cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com since mid to late December looks awfully strong noting some of the TA indicators that I like to use when deciding how likely the roadmap is going to be correct are suggesting a turn is imminent.
I will not try to trade the day to day wiggles, but will look at trend and may trade with the trend if I see an overbought situation on the 2 hour chart. Right now the RUT is in overbought territory with an RSI of 72.63 (has been overbought since Jan 2nd) and its an index that likes to lead the overall market. KST is another indicator that is also lined up to make a negative divergence at a very extreme reading. Last but not least the MACD histogram has been over zero for almost 2 months, and that is a good sign that a reversal is imminent.
I am positioned as indicated in the Trade History section which I will update in real time for those who wish to see it, and of course I expect to be judged against my performance since I'm putting it out there publicly.
Interesting that the Nikkei tonight is down 2.5%....
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSo what happens when the correlation chart stops working, do you sign up to change-in-trend.com and paste ZigZags latest correlation chart on here?
ReplyDeleteAlso you mention timing the trade, other than the 45 year cycle what tools will you use to "time the trade"?
Otherwise goodluck with your project.
Ange
I can appreciate your comments. ZZ uses correlation , symmetry, theory from books he's read, etc. Far more advanced than my methodology. I do not strictly use 45 year correlation charts, but look to TA to confirm probability of direction like RSI, Bollinger bands, Kst, support and resistance levels, etc. I don't subscribe there so not using their charts, and certainly don't profess to know more than anyone. I am actually using several correlation chartS and may amend when I think probability is highr on other dates.
DeleteSS76, I can see that there might be some haters out there. Don't let them discourage. Use it as fuel to motivate. Thank you for sharing your knowledge!
ReplyDeleteVery kind. Thank you. Just want an open sharing community to share stock market ideas.
DeleteThank you SS for thiz Blog and sharing your Knowledge :)
ReplyDeleteVery Welcome.
DeleteHi SS
ReplyDeleteThis awesome. Look forward to your blog just like SC's. Hope you keep it free unlike others.
By the way, change-in-trend.com site was hip and hot while it was free.
Thanks!
Hi InvestBB. Thanks and welcome.
DeleteI really liked change-in-trend.com (free version). Really knowledgable people, and can't speak highly enough about the quality and integrity of certain individuals (ZZ comes to mind).
Congratulations on starting your own blog. I got rid of my longs. Part position in the spxu.
ReplyDeleteMy other name I use is Dave Lane on other Blogs.
DeleteWelcome Dave.
DeleteMy own cycle low is slated for Feb 25th Looking at approx 9-11% correction. NO CRASH Approx 1320 sp
ReplyDeleteConcur. Time certainly important as is price. If we do get that low around Feb 25th, then I'll probably sell to be safe cause those are around the levels for a low.
DeleteThanks folks. I may change the look of the blog as I figure this all out, but thought this would help me stay disciplined and understanding that I learn much from others.
ReplyDeleteWill this blog ever become subscription?
ReplyDeleteNever.
ReplyDeleteI will hold you to your word. LOL
DeleteNever. I want the market to pay me, regardless of how good I ever get at trading. I'll probably have a donate button if anyone wants to contribute anything but that will never be my expectation.
DeleteI am finally in the shorts. Average price 1472.5 I have been waiting for new lows in the vix I will hold 1/2 position for my cycle low in later Feb. The other 1/2 for trading purposes. I have a little more gun powder if needed. It should be fun ride. All the best everyone.
ReplyDeleteHi M Myers
Deletewondering what you use to shorts? you buying puts for SPX or something else?
Thanks!
Hi InvestBB, I am using spxu right now, I will buy puts in early Feb for march. I do not want to buy any march contracts at this time due to the decay in the value of the options. Another reason I will not buy any march contracts, is due to the whips saws in the market. Again furthering more decay in the value of the options. I will NOT buy any UVXY. The people who came out with this product should be thrown in jail. That product is just a license to steal. Remember to have exit points if the market turns against you. We may have some large gaps up or down in the futures before the market opens in the morning within the next several weeks.
DeleteI am still not totally convinced that the stock market has topped out. Their is still the possibility the sp reaches for the 1483-94 level. Another reason I will not buy put options at this time.
DeleteFake Print IWM 89.74 Not good for the bears if this comes true.
DeleteHi M Myers
Deletewondering where you see the fake print, is it a free site you can share with us?
Thanks!
This comment has been removed by the author.
Deletehttp://reddragonleo.com/wp-con...
DeleteFake print
Myers, I'm with you. This market could very well overheat before the big correction. My guess is the correction takes us to 1334
ReplyDelete