The goal of this blog is to identify medium term tops and bottoms in the markets. I use a variety of technical indicators to confirm turn dates identified on the 2013 Roadmaps. This blog will always remain free as the intent is that the market is the one who pays me, not you. TimetheTrade (aka TTT) is born. SS76
Sunday, 5 May 2013
Thus far, the roadmaps have proved to be quite reliable as part of your trading strategy. When everyone and their mother was calling for a top, the roadmap #1 continued to call for higher highs into early/mid may. May 1-3rd as previously mentioned was a key point as if that was a low, then roadmap #2 would have been the likeliest scenario.
So, lets focus on whats ahead.
I had figured 1600 - 1610 was the high for May 14 - 16 timeframe however since we are past that, and the trend line suggests that if we do go as high as the upper channel top, we are looking at a high of 1650. While that doesn't seem possible for me, I will just work with what the chart is telling me. Its more important that time is correct rather than price.
So what I've illustrated below is the current scenario using a rising wedge from the 2011 Low, that we are sitting at the top of, and I'm also using an upper trend channel the S&P finds itself in (better for shorter trading timeframes).
I don't hold too much stock in the upper green line partly due to the fact the S&P had already broken through it previously and hence why we are moving to the upside still, but the lower red line is still important as we look forward. If the S&P continues in this channel to the May 14 - 16 timeframe, then we are looking at a 1650 price. However I just posted the main alternate roadmap which is showing May 7th as the next high, and if that ends up being the case, we are looking at 1640.
The drop according to the primary roadmap is going to be roughly 18%, so we are looking at a 50% fib retracement of the bull move off the Oct 2011 low. You will notice how this would significantly violate the red trendline and this is would mean that the next peak will be a lower high, as per Roadmap #1 around late Oct early Nov.
May 21st is an important date to know if roadmap #1 continues as primary, or if we should be looking at the main alternate roadmap which takes a different direction into early July before heading down into early August.
The Primary Roadmap calls for a lower high in early November, the Main Alternate Roadmap calls for significant new alltime highs at the end of November. Whats great, is that the July 29 - Aug 2nd low is a major one, before a big move back up into at least early November for both scenarios.
Remember, always use stops, and don't just rely on the roadmap, look at technicals around turn dates to confirm direction. Either way, I will be all in short come May 14 - 16, but will start building my short position May 7th.