The goal of this blog is to identify medium term tops and bottoms in the markets. I use a variety of technical indicators to confirm turn dates identified on the 2013 Roadmaps. This blog will always remain free as the intent is that the market is the one who pays me, not you. TimetheTrade (aka TTT) is born. SS76
Sunday, 17 March 2013
So I wanted to start of by saying that I have now posted the FULL YEAR roadmaps for the S&P 500, with all sorts of commentary attached. You can find this by selecting the 2013 Roadmaps tab at the top of the page.
Now, Cyprus has announced some crazy plan to screw the little guy, setting an asset tax for all those with bank deposits for up to 10%. That is crazy, and quite frankly grand larson as they attempt to raise funds that are necessary under the terms of their bailout.
Futures are down sharply tonight, however I actually believe the vote on this measure set for Monday, will actually be rejected. That, or Europe will weigh in and say how unique Cyprus is and that this won't happen anywhere else in Europe. In other words, I expect this to be a blip on the chart, and for the S&P to continue higher into March 31st as Roadmap #2 suggests. I'm figuring the dip into May 3rd is roughly 3% - 5%, which is minimal given this run. THE KEY MESSAGE IS, BUY THE DIP.
Futures thanks to Cyprus:
Wednesday, 6 March 2013
In recent posts I called short term highs (1530 SPX and 930 RUT), however the retracement didn't go back as far as I thought it would (thought 1460 SPX but 1487 was the max). Also the Alternate Roadmap called for a Feb 25th - 28th low, and it came in on the 27th.
Now the Alternate Roadmap is looking like we are going up into March 30th, and as such ensure you use stops regardless of which side of the trade you take. I will continue to post daily resistance/support levels for the SPX.
Here is the obvious target (of course if this gets violated, we are in unchartered terrirtory):
So my idea is to just to wait it out and see if we get to 1576, try a short around there but may scale in leading to that time period if price does what I expect. I do get the feeling though that we will retest 1492 come May 2nd before surging higher into the summer to new and unprecedented highs. Now, that is according to roadmap #2 even and I have a major turn date of May 3rd as posted the following chart Feb 1st:
In the meantime, I will be going short again Natural Gas as I believe the downside is the most likely bet as the next move down to futures contract price of $3.15, before heading up into a June high probably around $4.
I will sometimes deviate from the plan if I see a quick trade....as always, all trades posted in real time in the Trade Section.
Good luck folks.